2

With a stack of 3000, 50/100 blinds, I was holding:

2 4 (not suited)

I'm big blind in a heads up game. Opponent matches the big blind, so I end up playing a hand I'd never play otherwise.

Flop:

3 3 5 (Rainbow)

I see a straight draw, which is pretty nice. Something around 32% if my odds calculations are right, plus potential outs with the remaining 2s and 4s, if he has something like AQ (meaning against a nonpair, I have 14 outs, which is in the 50% range, minus some for possibly hitting his pair also). Plus the fact that there aren't cards much higher than mine - so more likely he doesn't have anything matching the table.

I bet 200, making the pot 400 at this point.

He moves all in, which is only about 2x pot size (and about half of my total stack). Assuming I don't know anything about past patterns - is this an automatic 'match' or 'fold', or is this in the 'it depends' category? If I take his bidding at his word, is this suggesting a particular hand?

His all-in was equivalent to a raise of 1200 for me, so the pot was 200+(my 200) + (his 1400) for total of 1800 at this point. I'd be risking 1200 to win 3000 (and left with 1500, half my original stack, if I lose).

At the table, I put him on a higher pair (pair of Ts, say) and folded (as the straight draw itself seemed like a bad idea).

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5
  • I have no idea on tags here, by the way, so please retag if this isn't right.
    – Joe
    Jul 24, 2015 at 20:27
  • 1. Your question is badly formulated 2. Lack of data to answer you, i.e your stack
    – user3509
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:24
  • Yes Following what you said, that was a good fold.
    – user3423
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:38
  • Updated to include hand size. I don't know why I bet 200 (full pot) btw - that seems high now that I look at it. But... who knows.
    – Joe
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:45
  • Strange hand. Heads up any pair and any ace should raise in that position. Still fold. The could be on a 3 or 5.
    – paparazzo
    Jul 6, 2017 at 16:48

1 Answer 1

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1

It's always nice to get a hard-to-detect draw (unless you occasionally land against a miracle full house along the way; the complete/check action often leads to this), but players often overrate the open ended straight draw (OESD).

That is, an OESD is overrated and should played with caution; it's true that you have around 32-35% equity but this is only if you see the entire board; you only have 17% (or say 20% to ease pot-odds calculation) equity per-street.

So, your question: No (Fold)

I don't know what others do with an OESD, but you should not gamble your entire stack with this, unless you're short stacked, say close to 5bb and need to act quickly.

Are you sure you have 14 outs? He may have the 5 or he simply paired the 3 since the action was complete/check.

  • If i have a stack that can call him and not crippled if i lose, say lose only 30% of my stack, i'll probably call here
  • If we both have few blinds left, i certainly call here.
  • If we both have good stacks, i'm going to fold here 100%.

So, for me it depends on the stacks as well and how it's going to cripple me if i'm not that desperate; It's just a draw.

That changes if you have some kind of combo draw, like

  • OESD + flush draw
  • OESD + 1 pair
  • OESD + 2-high cards
  • OESD + something more in general

EDIT

Based on the pot odds, you have been given around 30% (28%) pot-odds where you may be 30-35% dog to win. You certainly not crippled up if you lose, ending with around 15bb but the fact is you have enough blinds to keep going and keep your opponent with short stack; 30bb is a good amount for better chances than this one. Don't make him the leader, you're not desperate yet. Calling here is out of desperation with around 30% equity.

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  • I certainly don't know if I truly have 14 outs - I assume his cards are part of the deck until I know otherwise (is that wrong?) since they're unknown cards, unless I put him on a particular hand.
    – Joe
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:28
  • Overall though this is what I was looking for (though i'll leave it open to attract more answers). I know I overrate OESD's - that's part of why I folded, knowing I probably was overrating my chances. I think I fold hands actually that I perhaps shouldn't - like suited T9 - because I know I'm likely to misplay them when the cards come down and over-reach...
    – Joe
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:30
  • 1
    @Joe, you can't put him on any hand since the action was complete/shove, he played the stop'n'go move and you don't know what he has; he may have a hand or he may have J2o trash. I'll check the stacks on this since this is unclear; I'ts better for me folding here and shove it with a pair next hand since i just don't have fold equity anymore.
    – user1165
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:33
  • I was around 25-30 BBs, from what I recall. IE, pot was 200 (100+100), my bet was 200, so with his match was 600, then all-in was another 1200, which I could match plus leave another 1200 to 1500. So not a short stack for sure, but not a massive stack.
    – Joe
    Jul 24, 2015 at 21:34
  • 1
    You have 14 outs only against something like KQ, but given the action it's more likely that you have only 8. At the moment you have nut f---ing low, so you have to catch, and there's 0 implied odds, so it's purely a guessing game about your draw. 1200-for-3000 is pretty close if you have 14 outs, but I think a fold is pretty clearly the better play here.
    – Lee Daniel Crocker
    Jul 24, 2015 at 22:12

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