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You are at an eight-handed table in 5 card draw. A tight player opens in first seat, and his reputation is that he would not open in that position with less than a pair of aces, or queens up. Several players fold behind him

You are in sixth position and have jacks up.You are considering raising the opener, and believe that the following two, reasonably tight players will fold to a raise unless they have a made hand (trips or better).

What are the chances of your jacks up holding against a presumed pair of aces? (If opener has queens up or better, you are already beat, unless you improve.)

You plan to discard one and draw to a full house, but of course, "queens up" also would have this option. Does this change the equation? (One person opined, what is your second pair, saving that he would raise if he might improve to "tens full of jacks" but fold if it were "sixes full of jacks," which he felt might lose to opponent's "x's full of aces.")

One more thing; you are also perceived as a tight player, and raising with jacks up is something of a bluff, because people believe that you have "higher" standards.

  • I don't know enough about stud to give you an answer but I found this article which, maybe I'm wrong, explains the probability for stud well. I'm not a stud player so I'm not certain it'll help. Hope it is worthwhile for you. Read me! – Grinch91 Aug 27 '15 at 14:30
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I like just calling here. You already have position on the raiser, and can narrow him down pretty well. I don't see much benefit in trying to chase out those behind you. The tougher decision is whether to call if he bets after the draw and you don't improve. Raising only makes that later decision more difficult.

Glad to know somebody in the world still plays draw. :-)

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Raising is not good in this position, just call. Your chances are like 10-20% I forget against aces, and pretty much the same against queens. In general I like to see the flop before raising with jacks just because so many bad things can happen with jacks when you overrate the hand.

In a full house position like 10s full of jacks you always raise first, if you get re-raised you just call it down pretty much every time. The hand has too much value in most situations to not call it down, even against tight players.

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  • Oh I thought this was texas hold em rofl – Man Person Aug 27 '15 at 14:32
  • He does say "jacks up," so that's not jacks versus aces. It's jacks and some other lower pair versus a single pair of aces. – Chris Farmer Aug 27 '15 at 15:56
  • I would probably then still apply the same strategy, but raise more with the full house since he would have to make trips as well to get his full house. – Man Person Aug 27 '15 at 15:57

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