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Game: SNG $0.25 45-man, 13 players left

SB/BB: 75 / 150

Hand: A♠ 7♥ (20 bb, before the turn action)

Board: T♠ 6♠ 8♠ 5⋄ (turn)

Opposition: 2 villains (50 bb, 20 bb, before the turn action)

Current pot on Turn: t1500

Action on Turn: The mid-stack bets 450 on the 1600 pot (18% pot odds) and i called. That leaves me with around ~16 blinds but i couldn't shove with 1 card to come and with 30% card odds to hit my combo draw (15 outs).

There was a problem though. The big stack min-raised the flop and had to act after me. I feared he may re-raise but at the same time i couldn't just fold my huge draw, not yet.

The big stack indeed re-raised, about x2.5 the initial bettor. Now i had to call 600 on a 4650 pot, in short i had 10% pot odds and virtually an easy-peasy call. However, this call consumes 25% of my current stack (had to call 600 out of my 2430 stack, with 1 card to come and with 30% win odds).

Long story short, i fold. I choose to keep playing with around 16 bb rather than calling, miss and ending with ~11 bb and entering Push/Fold domain. Do you think was a good fold?

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    What was the payout structure for the SNG? I get what you were thinking, but this seems to be a pretty bad fold. Also, you say you have 30% odds and that's why you didn't raise the turn--was there a reason to think that you didn't have any fold equity, at least against the bigger stack?
    – Dr.DrfbagIII
    Nov 9 '15 at 20:27
  • @Dr.DrfbagIII, the 45-man payout structure closely resembles this. I thought i didn't had any fold equity since the big stack already had min-raised the flop (to other mid-stack) and feared he might just call me if i raise, so i tried to keep the pot small as possible. I wouldn't care if i were on the flop with that draw (easy shove) but with 1-card to come, tiny stack and no fold-equity i had a headache choosing what i say in my last paragraph :)
    – user1165
    Nov 10 '15 at 0:44
  • Good question! In the future, could you also indicate the details of rest of the hand? A fuller history of the hand would help everyone put a read on the hand here, because your 30% odds really depends on what's already made. You have 30% against a lot of hands, but that 5 is only a draw if the flush isn't already made.
    – ChristopherBrown
    Nov 10 '15 at 18:49
  • @ChristopherBrown, hey thanx :) The problem with the hand was that table was short already and kinda changed recently (new players), i had say ~5-25 hands from the active players, and there was 1 big stack sitout. Not much to inform here. Yes, 30% was about my equity here, the problem was that i had 1 card only to reveal, i wish i was on the flop with that equity (60%), and say, fewer players and a shorter stack :). Nevertheless, i'll continue to analyze this, it gave me a headache.
    – user1165
    Nov 11 '15 at 13:10
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I think this was a bad fold. You have to stick with the story you are trying to tell. You personally knew no one had the nut flush. So the two other players had to fear the ace of spades. Now the board also has a straight draw.

I would have gone all in here. You had the most information possible, the nuts was not in either players hand. You would have been able to scare off a wide range of hands here and even if someone called you still had 15 cards that would more than likely give you the win to anything but a flush/stright flush.

Going all in on the turn would have been a stronger move in my opinion than going all in on the flop. Calling on the flop signifies you either hit your hand or had a draw. Pushing on the turn would have completed the story that the 8 somehow improved your hand enough for you to risk tournament life.

consequently.. What was the final card?

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  • Thanx. I believe my story was obvious to anyone (flush). The problem is that i was on Turn. I always have a problem to decide my tournament in just one card, y'know. If i had the luck to get this combo draw on flop, that would be a fist pump shove since i have 60% win odds, but i have problem with 30% for my life with a not so short stack (16bb is a good one with regular time = 10mins/level, no?) Although, i fully understand your points, perhaps it was time for semibluff :)
    – user1165
    Nov 11 '15 at 13:00
  • the final card was a spade :) but have no problem with that, i'm not results oriented. But i certainly going to analyze the turn all-in move, thanx.
    – user1165
    Nov 11 '15 at 13:15
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You did an awful fold.

What you should have done is push all in.

The pot is already big enough for you to take it down. If you push you should have a lot of fold equity here. You have more outs than you said. I think if A comes you might win the pot also. Taking all this into consideration this is a really good spot to push, if he calls and you win this pot you will have a great stack to take down this tournament which is what you should aim for and not surviving.

If you have 16 BB and get card dead for 3 rounds you'll be crushed and will have to gamble in some PF all ins. If you had won all in after you push you could easily wait 3 rounds or try stealing blinds because you can with 40BB.

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  • Thanx. I know the pot is already big, this is what i check most of the times, but i'm not sure about my fold equity. However, i agree that a kind of a semibluff was in order here (check my other comment above). It's just the 1-card situation i'm uncomfortable with. Perhaps you're right, with smallish stack and a ton of equity i probably have to gamble now, thanx :)
    – user1165
    Nov 11 '15 at 13:07

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