Cash Game situation

Question

I was playing a cash game in a local cardroom here when this situation occurred for me. I'm happy enough with my decision but just looking for some other opinions and or points of views.

The game was a 1/2€ cash game, 8 players. The players in general were min buying in or buying in for only 50€. In general the players aren't being serious and just playing recreational. The table has been playing with no new players for a bit longer than 2 hours.

HAND:

Hero Stack: 275€

Villain Stack: 90~€

PreFlop:

Villain: UTG+1 limps. Villain has shown down some very weak holdings, and has shown that he likes suited cards, any combination of them, i.e. K♦︎2♦︎. Kind of aggressive with large bet sizing on draws.

Folds around to hero.

Hero: K♥,Q♥, hero opens to 7€.

Folds back to villain, he calls. Pot is now €16 (1€ gone from rake hence not 17€)

Flop:

Board: K♦︎,3♦︎,8♣

Villain: Checks

Hero: Pretty comfortable with my hand here so raise to 10€.

Villain: Check-raises the hero to 30€. Now I will say he has done this previously, and shown a mediocre flush draw when he was called. To hero, at the time, it looks like a flush draw.

Action is on hero, what would be your thoughts on this? What would you have done? I'm thinking it was a mistake to shove, perhaps calling and assessing on the turn and shoving then was the better option. As I said I'm looking for other opinions and points of views here.

Outcome

Now this doesn't really matter to my question but for those wondering hero shoved, villain made a crying call. Turn was a blank and the river came 2♦︎, villain tabled Q♦︎,5♦︎.

Answer 1

Given your description of villain, I think your play is OK but a call might be better. A flush draw is a huge part of his range here. The problem with raising him all in though is that he's getting a pretty good price to call with just a flush draw. If you were to call instead of raising, then the majority of turn cards would result in one of two situations: A) the card is a blank and you can now bet large enough where he would be making a mistake to call (or he aggressively bets it himself in a poor position) or B) the turn is a diamond and you can possibly get away from the hand. Either situation looks to be comparatively positive for you versus going all in on the flop, so that's the route I would go.

Answer 2

TL;DR: I think shoving was fine.

After his flop raise he has only about a half the pot left in his stack. You're of course not folding to that raise given your read on him as a looser player who is likely to be playing diamonds this way, so calling or shoving are your two options. It's true that the villain has priced himself into the hand with that raise and he won't fold to your flop shove no matter what, but you don't need much fold equity as nearly a 2-to-1 favorite against that specific hand and a 58-41 favorite against a range that includes all suited diamond hands. If you can add 88, 33, and any K8 combo into the range, it becomes pretty close to even, but with the money already in the pot, it's still profitable for you to shove. You might not get any more money into the pot from him on a blank turn since his odds will have gotten worse, so trying to go for it here where you think you have the edge is ok.

Answer 3

My analysis is you played fine. If villain was on a flush draw you got pot odds to put him all in on the flop and you might have gotten him to fold. If you had waited for a blank on turn he might have gotten away.

What I don't get is the $20 raise from villain. He is not getting pots odds on the $20. If he was trying to push you off the pot he should have led out. To me that raise only made sense if he was sitting on A Q or better to get value but if he was sitting on A Q or better he should have raised after it came around to him pre flop. K 2 suited limp and call in early position is not a winning strategy.

Answer 4

Did some math. Basing purely on your action after the check raise,

If fold, EV = 0.

If shove, paying $73 to have 64% equity in $182 pot, or $116. EV is +$43.

If call, assume you will fold when diamond drops (20%), and shove when a brick drops. Assuming V folds to a brick, you are paying $20 to get 80% equity in $76 pot, or $61. EV is +$41.

If V calls a brick turn, you would pay $73 have 80% equity in a $182 pot, or $146. EV is +$73. This happens 80% of the time, while the other 20% you fold and lose your $20 call. total +EV is about $54.

By calling the flop and shoving a brick, you are forcing your opponent to make a mistake by calling your shove with not enough equity, when he would otherwise have the odds to make a correct call on the flop. If your opponent is able to fold to a brick, then it gives us an advantage because now we can float the flop with some bluffs.

Based on the calculations, it seems like the difference in EV is not great, so maybe a shove is the mentally easier play. Its definitely not a crying call for V to call with a flush draw, esp if he has the nut flush draw, as he'd have about 45% equity on the flop.

Answer 5

If you wait for the turn, you will keep guessing on his action. Shoving on flop is best choice here I think, but, remember, with this kind of player, you can go all in with nut flush draw on the same situation profitably. On his range still has better hands than yours but going all in with nut flush, you will either huge favorite (he has flush draw too) or not much behind (when his has 2pair+)