2

Early stage €150+15 live.

9-handed, blinds 40/80, most players are still at their starting stack of 10,000.

Hero has QcJc in small blind.

UTG limps
UTG+2 raises to 320.
UTG+3 calls
BTN calls
Hero (SB) calls
UTG calls.

Pot: 1680
Flop: QTc4c

Hero checks
UTG checks
UTG+2 bets 700
UTG+3 raises to 2100 (ALL-IN)
BTN folds
Hero ?

I decided to go all-in.

My reasoning is like this. UTG+2's c-bet looks rather weak, so I'm putting him on air, or AQ,KQ,KK or AA. If he has air, it doesn't matter if I fold or shove. If he has one of those other hands, I would like him to fold, to decrease variance, but I don't care if he does call, because it's about even money.

However, if I just call, and the turn bricks and he puts out a rather large bet, I'm gonna have a really hard time calling.

I'm not really concerned with UTG+3. I think he will shove rather light, because UTG+2's bet doesn't look strong and he is probably somewhat desperate with his small stack.

2

I am waffling on this. I think I could be convinced by any strategy that tries to get all of UTG+2's stack in the middle, and I could also be convinced to fold to a shove by UTG+2 if you call or min-raise the flop. I think this really comes down to reads you might have on UTG+2. If he's tight, then I'd be inclined to fold against a flop reshove from him. Otherwise I'd feel pretty good about my chances.

What do you make of UTG+2's 4x open followed by the small flop bet into four other players? I think most players with an overpair might bet more on the flop here, and I think the same for players flopping a set in an attempt to charge more against the flush and straight draws. But then some people are largely unaware of the pot size in live games where you have to keep track by yourself. He might think it's a strong bet since it's more than twice what he bet pre-flop. Either way, you have a better than 2:1 edge against even a 10% opening range.

The all-in player probably has a strong hand, since he was willing to shove into an open bet with three people still behind, and he's got essentially zero fold equity against UTG+2 and not much more against the other players. He might even have you beat now, but your equity against even the best hands on this board is quite good with the flush and back-door straight draws. He probably would have raised preflop with AQ, QQ, or TT, so he might have a lot of AcXc, KQ, QT, or 44. You're pretty close to even against that range, and if you throw in any paired tens like AT or KT or worse queens for him, your chances get lots better.

Clearly you don't want to fold, and any more action in this soon-to-be-bloated pot is probably going to commit your entire stack. I don't think that's a bad thing, though. You might shove, and I think that'd be ok with the stack sizes. I'd at least be tempted to call here to try to get more action from UTG+2, though. UTG is likely to fold to the substantial action in front of him since he's shown weakness so far, and UTG+2 is the only one likely to pay you off if you hit.

If you call, I think the biggest question is what UTG+2's reraise range is, whether a min-reraise or a shove, which are more or less his two raising options with this low SPR. If he's a player who wouldn't reraise here at all into a dry side pot without having you beat (for example if you could be confident he had AA, KK, AQ, or KQ), you might reasonably fold to a shove, but I think it's close. If he's likely to keep playing with all of his ~10% pre-flop raising range, I'd probably call. I guess I don't see a lot of argument for reshoving on the flop since he isn't likely to be raising with a bluff into a dry side pot given your range and the stack sizes, and he wouldn't call your shove with much you're ahead of. On the other hand, you have an SPR of about 1, so you don't really have a lot of options, so shoving when you have good equity won't be terrible. I'm not sure there's a lot of difference in your own range between calling and min-raising the flop all-in, given the low SPR. You could have AQ, KQ, QQ, QJ, QT, TT, 44. You probably don't call the flop all-in with just clubs or a paired ten, and probably not even QJ unless you have clubs, especially with UTG+2 yet to act. QcJc might be the worst hand you ever have here, so if UTG+2's willing to play back at you he's pretty strong.

I'd probably check my entire range to any turn card. If UTG+2 shoves any card that's not an A or K, I probably call. If he shoves a non-club A or K turn, I'd probably fold but not be happy about it. If he bets small, I'd probably float the turn and re-evaluate the river. My rationale here is that he's shown strength the whole hand even in the face of my showing strength, and much of my equity against him relies on the flush coming in. I don't think he's ever folding a better hand than mine here, and if the flush doesn't come, I don't think I'm a favorite, even given the pot odds. Also, the all-in player isn't really dead money, since he's likely to have gotten a good piece of the flop, so that minimizes the value of any perceived overlay from the main pot.

So, I guess my attempt at an answer basically ends in a shrug. Get it all in on the flop, or not.

| improve this answer | |
  • 1
    +1 for being quicker with an answer than 2p2. I didn't have much reads, it being the beginning of the tournament. So I guess you're saying I should call/fold? – wvdz Dec 28 '15 at 23:43
  • No, I just think you might be able to rationalize just about any behavior here. :) I sure wouldn't fold after the UTG+3 all-in, but you might be able to make an argument for calling or raising. I don't think it'd be the worst to get it all in on this flop, but I think there might be better options. – Chris Farmer Dec 29 '15 at 0:35
  • Since it looks like no more answers will come in, i'll tell what I happened. I shoved to get UTG+2 to fold TPTK and over pairs, but to my surprise he snap called and showed TT. UTG+3 had KJ and won the main pot. UTG+2 won the side pot. – wvdz Dec 29 '15 at 20:47
  • Yeah, it sounds like the worst case scenario came true for you. I don't think your shove was bad, but it was clear that UTG+3 was strong and UTG+2 would not call a shove with many hands worse than yours. Still, you had a lot of outs. – Chris Farmer Dec 29 '15 at 21:18
0

I read your action and I don't get push on the flop
At this point you are top pair with a weak kicker
Based on the bets you are clearly not ahead
You have to improve to win and if you improve to a flush very likely have the best hand
If you pair the J you have to assume even that is not good
Trip Q is probably good so you have two more outs (but in the case not)
At that point I see no purpose to try and push UTG+2 off the hand
I think you want UTG+2 in the hand - that is $1400

All in on the flop you risked $7000 to push UTG+2 off a hand you likely needed a flush to beat anyway. If UTG+2 calls then it is for a hand that needs a flush to beat. What possible hand did you need to push UTG+2 off? The only thing that could beat a flush is a bigger flush or a full house and UTG+2 is not coming off trips or two pair. You might get him off A little clubs but would not have led out pre flop with Ace little suited. As I see it you risked $7000 for nothing. You are going to lose a bigger hand or win a smaller hand.

On the flop you call you are getting
4580 : 2100 = 2.10 : 1 if UTG+2 folds
5980 : 2100 = 2.85 : 1 if UTG+2 calls
Again I contend you are better off with UTG+2 calling
You are getting pot odds to make a flush on the river either way

If you hit a flush on the turn for sure you can get a value bet from UTG+2 and if UTG+2 hits a straight you are going to get a lot more from UTG+2

If UTG+2 gets a full house and you get a flush you are going to get stacked - nothing you can do about that. Still committing your stack early does not prevent it.

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  • It would have been more interesting if you shared your thoughts, before you knew what their holdings were. Of course, knowing he had TT it's an easy fold. I added my reasoning for shoving to the question. It's not true that I'm always getting the pot odds to make the flush on the river. That depends on the turn action. – wvdz Dec 31 '15 at 11:23
  • @wvdz Did I say fold - no I did not. Yes AT the flop you had pot odds. What could happen on the turn is no worse than what you did to yourself. Yes I saw you reasons - and I told you I don't agree. – paparazzo Dec 31 '15 at 12:11

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