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This happened in a $1/$2 NL game. The player on the button raised to $6. 3 others call, including me with 3♥5♥. The flop is K35 (different suits). Everyone checks to the button who bets $15. One player in early position calls. I have $48 and go all in. Button folds but other guy calls. I lose it on the river as he had 24 and gets his 6 on river. I think I had 80% chance to win after flop. Could I have done anything different?

  • I think he was getting pretty close to good odds to call the all-in, and it was definitely a correct call for villain if hero had him covered. Sure, the earlier action from villain is non-ideal, but the final call isn't so bad. – Chris Farmer Jan 1 '16 at 18:46
  • You had 67.78%: propokertools.com/simulations/… A good mnemonic is outs times 4 (8*4=32% for your opponent). It's kinda weird that you ask if you played it correctly when you are also sure that you had the best hand on the flop. – wvdz Jan 1 '16 at 20:06
  • You did the right thing not giving away free cards (especially if you did not put someone on a set which is highly unlikely in this action), you lost, on to the next. – Jonast92 Jan 4 '16 at 16:50
  • Standard. Calling pre is fine. – Anon Feb 4 '16 at 17:16
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Not really, I'd have played it exactly the same, especially given this is a multi-way pot, you want to isolate here against baby aces and small pairs hitting a set on subsequent streets. A King is well within any of the other players' ranges too.

It's the right play.

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You got your money in with the best hand. And he was not getting pot odds to call. Even if you knew what was in his hand you make the right play.

At the flop you were 68%. Even if he filled up the straight you still had 4 outs yourself for a full house.

On that board you had a very good hand. I would not have put a player on 24. And I doubt they put you on 35. I would have been more concerned about getting beat by a pair of kings but you bet enough that a pair of kings also was not getting pots odds.

  • Putting him on 24 is easy there, especially if it was suited, but the move was indeed the right move. – Jonast92 Jan 4 '16 at 16:48
  • Really you put a player in early position on 24 calling a pre flop raise to 3 bb. So you are not even thinking you need to push kings off the hand? And you also put your odds to win at 80%. – paparazzo Jan 4 '16 at 17:13
  • It depends a lot on the action of the game. He limped in to begin with but didn't limp-raise when he had the opportunity, it's unlikely that he got a big hand knowing that the players behind him will likely call after him only calling. He probably has a small pair or small suited connectors. A big hand would re-raise there unless you're only up against 1 or 2, here it's likely you're going to be up against 3. – Jonast92 Jan 4 '16 at 17:31
  • @Jonast92 Enter the pot in early position with 24? Not what I would guess. And if they are going to make a play like that then I would think they are not coming off it. But 24 is a possibility. – paparazzo Jan 4 '16 at 17:57
  • I agree with Frisbee. There are several other hands that I think might act this way from a typical low-limit player, but 24 would be near the bottom of my list. – Chris Farmer Jan 4 '16 at 18:47
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I do not know if the callers are big/small blind, so I am going to be pessimistic and say the pot is 4*6= 24$ after the flop. On the flop, before you shove the pot is 24+15+15=52$.

You shove with 48$, hence he has to call with 33$ the pot odds are 33/100 or 33%. He has 8 outs, hence the probability of hitting is aproximatley 8*4= 32%, or more precise 30% (exact probability calculation is a different subject).

30% is a little lower than 33% pot odds, hence, you opponent made a mistake and on the long run mistakes made are going to be profitable for you. Also, as noted by Chris, the pot odds will probably be slightly worse because of rake.

This run of cards was bad luck, but your play is mathematically good in the long run.

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    I think your odds calculation is wrong, because it neglects that the villain has already put in $15 post-flop and only has to call $33 to win $100, so he was getting pretty close to the right price on the final call. – Chris Farmer Jan 1 '16 at 18:29
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    I guess the odds are still probably a little bad, since probably $4 or $5 was removed from the pot for rake. – Chris Farmer Jan 1 '16 at 19:30
  • @ChrisFarmer You're right! I think I misread that. I wrote this answer just before I went to bed on new years eve. Might not have been completely sober ^^. I will edit – TmKVU Jan 2 '16 at 12:20
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Everyone check to the button, no one is showing strength. Someone wants a free/cheap draw

The button's job is to show strength, he might have anything, even after raising pre-flop. You know he has something, probably a suited-connected hand or a small pair, it's unlikely that he has a high pair in this action, although it's always possible. We later come down to the conclusion that he truly did not have anything.

A player calls instead of raising, he's probably drawing and the button is probably drawing for something as-well, -- you must raise in order to make them pay for their draws. You raised the maximum and normally you would have won the pot right there but you got a call, from a connected hand which is what you want, you just happened to be unlucky here.

You should make the same move again in the same circumstances and more often than not you'll win. You can always debate whether he should have called or not but you want him to call there with those outs, you're highly favorite.

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Should you have shoved, yes I think so. To answer your other question on could you have done anything differently, yes you could.

  1. Fold the hand pre. I know this hand can do well with a nice flop and it is a cash game, but with your stack I don't think you should be calling 6$ from your 54$ stack with 3♥5♥. Maybe you're a looser player and just want to have some fun, that's fine but you didn't need to play the hand. You never mentioned your position directly, but said someone was in an earlier position from you so I am assuming you limped or are the BB.

  2. You could have also donk bet it after flopping so big, your hand is disguised well, so even if someone shoves you don't mind calling, if they call you see the turn and can reevaluate, or they fold and you win a 24$ pot. You're playing 3♥5♥ for this type of board.

  3. You could even have open shoved. Increasing your stacking by 50% is not to be sniffed at, happily steal that and maybe not show down. Maybe not the best move in some games but this one really depends on the players at the table. If they love calling with top pair why not just push it in? It's hard to bet fold here with your stack. After you bet and if it's called you don't really have a meaningful shove left against a big stack. This point is very dependent on the players at the table though.

In the end you got unlucky that they hit the open ended draw, but you could have done a few things differently. Whether point 2 would have changed the result is something we will never know. Once you see that flop with that hand and the way you played it yes your money is going in.

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You shouldn't have played it so aggressively. Someone with even a King is likely to call you if they are the only person left to act. At that point, having such low pairs, there a lot of different ways you can lose over the course of the next two cards. They could make a higher two pair. The board could pair, counterfeiting your two pair. Or like what really happened, someone has a bizarre draw like that they are chasing.

In this kind of situation, playing this hand and playing it so aggressively, you are opening yourself to being called by people with strange, dangerous hands, or weak, still live hands like a higher pair. You are not going to get a call from someone who has a decent hand which cannot beat you.

The problem was with calling the $6 raise in the first place. You get what is for you, a fantastic flop, and now are stuck in an awkward place, having to be that aggressive, essentially trying to steal what is already in the pot. This hand is too vulnerable in general, especially too vulnerable to be playing for your entire stack.

  • His question is really about his post-flop decision and with the stack sizes post-flop, what could possibly be wrong with shoving? This is most certainly not an awkward spot post-flop. – Chris Farmer Jan 25 '16 at 21:12
  • Ok well then if you were trying to win the pot outright there, then yes shoving is the only play. However, getting himself in that situation to begin with is the actual problem. It's the sort of hand that, even if you hit it big on the flop like you did, you are in a spot where you have no options. You have to be aggressive, and even then you are vulnerable, prone to a lot of possible unlucky outcomes if someone calls. Because of the type of hand/flop this is, there are only a certain few types of hands which will call you. – GoodWillGustin Jan 25 '16 at 21:31
  • IF you are going to play this hand, IF you flop this, and someone else bets into you, then with the pot/stack situation described here, you only have two options; fold or push all-in. Since you haven't folded yet, it's safe to assume you wouldn't fold after improving your hand dramatically. So the only real option is to push all-in. You will most often win the pot right there. You will only ever be called by someone who has either a better hand, or a worse hand with a legitimate draw to beat you. Since you have the lowest two pair, you won't be trapping someone with a lower pair. – GoodWillGustin Jan 25 '16 at 22:08

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