What is a squeeze play?
When and how do you execute it?
Squeeze play is a specific move that works under the following circumstances:
- A very aggressive and loose player raises preflop (wide range)
- A loose player after him calls, since he knows the raiser will have a wide range
- You currently have a relatively tight table image
What you do with a squeeze play is re-raising the pot big, such that the original raiser and loose caller can not call because their hands probably can not stand up to a big 3-bet.
It is trivial that the raise must be big enough to push the players away.
A squeeze play is two players in the pot and you are in late position and you want to blast them both off the pot.
If you have a player that will open light and based on their image another player that will call with a wide range based on that and you are in late position then you are getting good pot equity to take down the pot pre flop.
What is opening light? For me someone that will open with any pair, KJ, or As in early position. Caller same plus any suited connector.
Assume 8 players at the table and BB is 2.
Early opens for 5. (if you are going to open light then come in for a raise so it cost more to push you off the pot) Mid calls.
In late position if I have JJ or better I just call or put in a value bet of 10. That is hand worth playing. If you read like Skalanky theory you should actually semi bluff more with hands at the bottom of you range.
A hand to semi bluff is like JT or a low pair. Yes you could be crushed but you are one a 3:2 dog over a range of hands you know they might play.
Pot is now 13 and assume you are on the button. Put them on best mid to low pair. What is it going to cost to get them off the pot. They are 7.5:1 to make trips on the flop but they put their implied odds 5:1 based on they can get paid off.
What does it take to get 5:1 off the pot?
(13 + bet) / (bet - 5) = 5
13 + bet = 5*bet - 25
38 = 4*bet
bet = 9.5
If you just bet the pot then they are getting
(13 + 13) / (13 - 5) = 26 / 8 = 3.25 : 1
If they call the pot will be 13 + 13 + 8 + 8 = 42
Yes they may wake up with QQ or better and have you dominated
Let say based on the range you are dominated 3:1 1/4 of the time
Over the rest of the range you are 3:2
They will call 1/2 the time (after all they are loose players)
What is your EV?
+ 1/2 * 13
+ 1/2 * 1/4 * 1/3 * 42
+ 1/2 * 3/4 * 2/3 * 42
Even if you are dominated 1/2 of their calls you still have positive EV
+ 1/2 * 13
+ 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 42
+ 1/2 * 1/2 * 2/3 * 42
Bet a monster (AK+) the same about 1/2 the time so they cannot put you on the bottom of your range.
In an earlier answer I said I would not play 99 early as a good table should abuse you. From late position I will abuse a lose player in early position.
If you see a problem with my math please comment.