could i have prevented losing to this set?

Question

I was playing $0.50 NL Hold'em tournament with AJo. I got high pair on the flop with no straight or flush draws and we both checked. on the turn i got the second pair, went all in and lost to three of a kind. here's the hand:

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hands/Boom/17783834_F5AC2A3018

What did i do wrong here? Should I have raised more pre-flop or bet on flop to see if I get a re-raise? How do you normally handle these situations?

Answer 1

You are not going to prevent losing to the set. But you could prevent losing your stack to the set.

preflop

• preflop mid just called so AJo is probably ahead or a coin flip to low pair
  AQ or better would have raised

• you bet 60 - raised 40 into 1 $50 pot

• so you are giving 110:40 pot odds = 2.75 : 1
  that is going to chase off blanks in the blinds
  it is not going to chase off many (if any) hands that would call from mid

• but even if you bet 90 to give them 2:1 you would probably not chase off any mid that would call

• 60 was about the right bet to isolate on mid and that is what you got

flop of A85

• this is good flop for you

• great flop for the villain - villain should slow play

• villain checks

• at this point the hands that could beat you that would have checked (slow play) are A8, A5, 88, or 55

• villain could be on a lot have hands that could improve to beat you
  villain could have an 8, 5, 67, or any pocket pair that would improve to be ahead

• your jack is not much protection as most hands with a jack that would call from mid position would have raised

• i think you should have bet 100 to give villain 5:2 to chase off draws (and maybe mid and low pair)
  at that point villain would have called
  or raised you back and you should have figured you are in trouble

• instead you check
  wrong play

now a jack comes up on the turn

• villain bets out 120 into a 150 pot - that is a big bet

• that is a stone cold bluff or 2 pair or better

• AJ villain would maybe play that way but not a likely holding as you have that hand

• JJ villain would have raised pre flop and the probably would have bet the flop

• 58 villain would not have even called preflop

• A8, A5 villain would only call from mid if suited
  And villain would have probably bet the flop
  not a likely holding

• 55, 88 villain totally would have played that way
  you seriously need to consider that you are dominated here
  at a 4 outer you are not getting even close to pot odds
  call is probably wrong - if villain has you beat he/she is going to bet out on the river
  if villain is bluffing then should bluff again on the river
  raise or fold and you seriously need to consider fold

• on top of all that villain could be on a flush draw now but that would be an odd bet for a flush draw

• jack was a scare card for the villain as you could be on AJ, KQ, diamonds, or a pair > 5 so villain is happy with a fold here to get you off a draw
  no way villain is coming off their hand as they are only behind AA, 88 or JJ and if you had JJ you would bet flop
  if villain was just value betting the set it would have been more like 1/3 - 1/2 the pot and then 1/3 - 1/2 the pot on the river - they wanted you gone or all in

Answer 2

I think you should be raising more here pre-flop, with that said I wouldn't say it's necessarily bad. Villain can't really fold, with what is likely in their early position limping range, for 40 more with 110 in the pot. Very much depends on your style, but I'd probably bet about 80/90 here.

I would have bet the flop too. Depending on what the villain does you can re-evaluate on the turn. Unless he jams on the flop after you're raised you'll likely call his bet anyway. If he does jam, you should probably fold. They won't be jamming lightly so early.

In the end even if you bet on the flop and the villain calls the turn really is a perfect card for you. It's unfortunate he had the set but when you see that turn it's a case of tap the table, say nice hand and move on.

Answer 3

You raised too small preflop, giving around 25% pot odds to a low pair to call you. He just have to call 40 more for a pot of 110 while he already limped 20, he's not going to fold, especially with a low pair.

On flop you should have C-bet to find where you're of at least around 60%. Since you checked, he realized he's not going to get more money in the pot, therefore he pot-bet quickly on the turn, not wasting any more time.

When someone checks the flop and bets big on the turn, that's always the sign of a strong hand, trying to slowplay but didn't succeeded, but it all depends on the opponent of course. An aggro raising much on the turn may signify a A7 hand trying to close the hand brutally, but against a tight opponent you should be way more careful.

Regardless the player type (loose/tight), a dominating hand like AK/AQ would certainly raised preflop, yet you didn't see such opening, therefore you should think you're not dominated. So, with what hands do you think he's showing such aggression, especially on turn after showing passivity on the flop?

While you couldn't prevent losing the hand (but also had 4 outs to win this as well), you could as well lose much less by just calling the turn bet and/or river.

Since this was a tournament as well and being in early stages, i would just called down to lose as little as possible. The blinds are small enough that you could keep continue playing if he happened to have a monster.