So this may be easy or simple but ya never can be sure sometimes when it's your play. I have only 3.5 bb and that's about average stack at level 8. No real room to play but still...open for min raise 16k in mid position leaving about 13k behind. QQ goes all in for 40k in SB. I'm now committed of course and holding...does it matter? Should I have just folded A8 off and waited for..? Bad or weak play? Thanks all
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I did for whatever reason but figured it's the same as all in.– MilkedglassFeb 20, 2016 at 23:19
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We are 7 handed and three tables left btw– MilkedglassFeb 20, 2016 at 23:21
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3 Answers
You are mid position, 7 handed, with 3.5 bb
bb 8k - you have exactly 29k (actually 3.625 bb)
You are 2 1/2 orbits from be blinded out
Time to make a stand - you are all in or fold
Any ace first in is a push
Any two paint first in is a push
Any pair is push
In the blind even call an all in with a lone ace
You don't have the luxury of a best of it. If you can get you money in with even a dog with a positive EV then that is good money.
With just a min raise you are (well should be) pot committed but you are not getting fold equity.
You gave the bb 3.5 : 1 pot odds to call
Even if the bb put you on KK or AA they were almost getting the 4:1 odds to call
Even the sb was getting pot odd to call two overs
A min raise of 2.5 bb is there for a reason - at least it might have chased off 85
At QQ it is a not brainier for the bb to push
Now lets look at your pot odds to call the re-raise to you
Pot is now 57 and you only need to call 13
You are getting 4.4 : 1 pot odds
To fold A8 in that position with 4.4 : 1 pot odd is insane
At that point the only hand you are not getting odds to is AA (5.7 : 1)
If the bb woke up with AA then that is poker
Even against QQ you are 30%
EV = .3(57) - 13 = 4.1
Yes you are a dog but you still have a positive EV
The accepted answer from Peregrine to fold and wait for better spot is crazy. Even if you got AA the next hand and got two blanks to call your EV is only 4.33. And if you hit you would have 39k in not 70k.
answered Feb 21, 2016 at 19:39
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Woops, thanks for the EV math. You have proven nicely that folding the 13k is insane so glad I didn't make that mistake at least. Why I didn't just shove is beyond me since I should know better. It's time to move then while i still have some good equity, get lucky with or without the best of it, and not give the whole table odds ta boot. Cheers Feb 21, 2016 at 22:11
With just 3.5 big blinds left, your only options are push or fold - there's no point in min-raising with the plan of folding if you're re-raised. You need to get lucky fast and first-in, any ace is fine to push with. Is the average stack really 3.5 BB with 21 players left? If so, I hope you didn't pay any money to enter such a poorly structured tournament!
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Thanks for that..absolutely a bad structured tourney, basically gambling and a ton of luck needed. It was 40 with the add on to chop for 350 or so. Folding doesn't seem good but that min raise isn't either I guess Feb 21, 2016 at 13:51
You open and ace eight is 60/40 over a random hand. shove. You are likely to be called (definitely) by queens, but you are not likely to get a better spot to shove.
In that he shoved, you are way behind most likely and then you lay it down and go on the next two cards whatever they are and shove on that hand...Good luck!
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Interesting. I like that thought process of shoving of course, yet maybe I can fold the min raise if he shoves (assuming I think I'm way behind which I did indeed). The next hand likely won't be a worse spot than I'm in now...thanks Feb 21, 2016 at 13:59
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