Is it normal if I'm running 11.500 big blinds below EV in all-in pots over 700.000 hands? What are the chances for this to occur? My standard deviation BB/100 is about 100.

  • How many all-in hands did you play? – Dr.DrfbagIII Mar 11 '16 at 22:08
  • There are 6700 hands where the showdown has occurred without any action taken on the river. – sasieightynine Mar 12 '16 at 4:28
  • I would say off the cuff that there is no normal, it really depends on how many of these all-ins are bluffs in relation to nuts. – Jon Mar 17 '16 at 3:55
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    My average equity in those all-in hands is 50.3%, and I have won 50.6% of those hands so that part is fine, but it seems that I have won way more hands (about 51%) when I have invested less than 60BB to the pot, so I guess that's where the EV difference comes from. I'll play another 200K hands, if nothing changes I'll try some other sites to play at. If someone interested I can show the graph. – sasieightynine Mar 18 '16 at 19:15

That is a relatively small sample size. I wouldn't worry about it too much if you're thinking that you may have a leak of some sort. I'd say you need tens of thousands of hands before that all-in number starts representing the real EV value. Hands rarely get all in, that's why the sample size needs to be so large.

EDIT: There is a correlation. Leak is present.

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  • I think you misunderstood, those 6700 hands are all all-in hands, the whole sample is much bigger than that... – sasieightynine Oct 11 '16 at 21:40
  • Yep, I totally misunderstood. Yeah -11.5BB at this point seems rather high. What stakes are you at? – Wyatt Shuler Oct 11 '16 at 21:44
  • Mostly 2NL-10NL and some hands are from 16NL-25NL. But except 2NL I run way below EV in the higher stakes. I'd have to reimport my hands because I don't have the DB right now, but I clearly remember that I'm down by at lest 25-30BI at 10NL and I have similar numbers at the rest of the limits except 2NL where I run above EV by 5 BI's or something like that. If you need more details I'll do a reimport and I can dig into more data... – sasieightynine Oct 12 '16 at 2:32
  • US sites or Stars? I feel if you've played 100k+ hands at the micros and that number is still so low there may be room for improvement. At these stakes throw any GTO approach to the game out the window and focus on the more exploitive side. Solid TAG poker should be crushing IMO. – Wyatt Shuler Oct 12 '16 at 2:42
  • I've played 1,1 million hands on Stars at CG tables, I have pretty much to improve that I'm sure of, I'm just simply curious if it's normal that I'm still below EV of 100BI. – sasieightynine Oct 12 '16 at 4:52

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