Set with a draws on the flop

Question

Hero 8♠8♥

Let's say raised to 3BB from mid and had two callers
(solid players that will bluff and lay down but nothing crazy)

Everyone has 50+ BB

Flop
8♣7♣T♥

At this point hero only behind TT, 9J, and 69

Is there any situation in which hero should check or put in a small bet to build the pot?

What is the betting strategy for the flop?
Out of position (OOP)

My thought is a great hand that is vulnerable and bet the pot to take it down right there.

Say hero fires a pot sized bet at the pot and gets one caller.
If a 9♣ comes up on the turn should hero fire again?

Answer 1

Having a set, i would only check the flop if:

• ..it was dry like 3⋄8♥J♣ My reasoning is there are not enough high cards and draws for someone to have hit something and following me.

There's no other case in my book for slowplaying a set. Slowplaying is overrated and a nice way to lose a whole street of value.

On a flop of 78T i'm suspicious of any 9X and a handful of other combinations and therefore i'm gonna bet every street.

It's better to bet straight away from the flop, most players think you can't have a set and bet it right away on the flop, so bet it.

In addition, many people just check/raise frequently and only on the flop, so don't waste a nice street of value, especially if you were the preflop raiser and just C-bet in their thought.

It's also depends on your opponents; check/raise on aggros, value bet or c-bet straight away against tight players.

If a 9♣ comes then it comes, you bet correctly anyway. This is where position becomes very important; you're going to witness how they react on Turn before you and gaining a free street (mostly) to the River, having around 25%-30% to improve to a full house after they check to you, which they do even with a straight, thinking you may bet again.

Answer 2

I won't give the check to myself but I ran the numbers to see if they supported my intuition

Let's just go with 10 BB in the pot preflop

I ran the EVs

Basically have 3 options

• play it slow
  assume 1/3 pot size bet each round
  villain is smart enough to get away on the river if they don't hit a draw
  hero will fold river if a draw hits and they did not hit a boat
  if both hit hero will stack villain (very low odds)
  EV = 16.5
• play it fast
  pot size bet on flop takes down the pot
  EV = 10
• play it fast
  full pot size bet every round is called round
  hero will lose 1/3
  EV = 50
• play it semi fast
  1/2 pot size bet every round is called round
  hero will lose 1/3
  EV = 19

Clearly villain is not going to chase you every time you play fast. But if villain just chases 1/6 of the time then EV = 16.5. Villain will probably chase more than 1/6 so play fast is better than play slow. This is based on only one villain chasing but two is probably better - your money doubles but your chance of being good does not go down 1/2.

If villain will chase 1/4 when you play fast and villain wins 1/3 then your EV is 20.

Semi fast (1/2 the pot) to keep them in more often is not worth it. If semi fast keeps them chasing 1/3 the time then hero EV is 13.

Based on these numbers I think I would play fast even without chasing off draws. 50BB behind is not enough to play that pot size fast - need to slow down to get them stacked in 3 even bets.

Slowing down to get keep more player the pot does not seem to pay out. Blanks are going to fold to even 1/2 pot. You just don't lose that many from 1/2 to full pot compared to the payout.