Texas Hold em - What are the odds of this happening? I had a Q full of 10s and lost to four 10s. It obviously was a bad beat because the 4th 10 was on the river, but I would like to know the percent chance of this happening? Thanks
The odds of you getting a boat are 2.60%
But that number is high as you can only get quaded if the boat has a set
If you are using the pair on the board to make trips then there are not two left to quad
From the boat there are 45 cards out (52 - 2 - 5)
The only way for you to get quaded is for the other hand to match the pair on the board
So the odds of getting quadded are:
(2/2) / (45/2) = 0.00101 = 0.1% = 989:1
Which also = 2/45 * 1/44
From an odds perspective you can deal the other hand last. Either the hand puts blocks on the board or board puts blocks on the hands. In a random draw order does not matter.
Once the board is out (45 cards remaining) there are only 990 possible hands for your opponent. This is actually an easy one that you can do at the table 1/990.
Ironically if you have a set on a board with no flush or straight then you don't want to make boat. The set of tens probably did not even know they needed the quad.