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In a poker game (Texas Hold'em) I've come in a situation that a player go all in before the flop. I've got 4♠ and 2♦ and I've fold to save my money. I've read How to deal with people who randomly go all-in?, and in this situation is it better to fold. There were two players who goes all-in. Total pot was 100,000 chips or something (we aren't playing for real money so we use chips instead of euro).

After the river the cards on the table are:

5♠ 9♠ A♥ 7♠ 2♠

The other two players got this cards:

  • A♦ and A♣ for the first player
  • Q♣ and Q♥ for the other player

So I could win this hand with a flush much beter than three of a kind and a pair of aces of Q's! So my question is it in this situation good to fold before the flop and could I predict that I could win the hand? I know that you beter fold with bad cards if anyone goes all-in in the preflop, but I could win this hand and buss two players.

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    Of course you should have folded, even without your opponent going all in. Your hand was completely worthless. Such hands will, of course, accidentally win many pots. Get over it. Fold an move on. – Lee Daniel Crocker May 2 '16 at 16:13
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And you can win money with a lottery ticket. Does not make it a good investment. A lottery ticket has a better rate of return than 42 off suite. Most players will randomly go in with aces or queens.

If you have players that will randomly go in then take a stand with a hand that will beat a random hand. 42 off suite beats 72 off suite but that is about it. 42 off suite is one of worse possible starting hands. Don't call if you can't even beat a bluff. If you want to gamble then pick a hand like 78 suited or 33 as you are a dog but you have a lot more ways to win - you still should not call two (even one) all-in with it. Two players in the pot then even if it is a bluff let them battle it out.

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It's always disappointing to (e.g.) throw away a nice suited hand such as J9d to the early raiser and see three diamonds come out on the flop which would have busted his aces, especially when he goes on to be the chip leader and you bust out without having gotten any better hands. But to answer your question "could I predict that I could win the hand" there are three things you can do, none of which I can recommend or endorse:

  • You can gamble on speculative hands. I would call something like a suited or connected hand which is otherwise not strong speculative. This is not a winning play - it's going to feel really good when you hit your hand and you're going to seem like a genius for those few times you hit your cards, but you are going to have negative EV in the long run.

    Note that for the hand you describe I wouldn't even consider playing a non-suited hand speculatively without the Ace of Spades and some other good card, because it's so easy for other players to have a spade as well and out-kick you.

  • Obviously you could passively cheat in some opportunistic manner: for instance, if you are sitting next to the dealer and from the way they are handling the cards you can see them when you shouldn't, or maybe the cards are old and there are markings on them and the dealer isn't properly burning cards like they should.

    DON'T DO THIS! This is also a long-term negative EV play, not just for yourself and your integrity, but for the integrity of the game as well.

  • Get so good at reading the table that you can read the deck before it's dealt. This is a bit different from the previous answer in that you are not trying to obtain illicit information, rather you are trying to get the same feel from the dealer, the dealing process, and the deck of cards as you would from other players.

    This is information that is available to everyone at the table. I'm not suggesting that you watch every card whose value you know and try to follow their position in the deck as they get mixed and shuffled like... I don't know... maybe the "Rain Man" character could do.

    But rather what I'm saying is that you need to listen not only to what other players are telling you non-verbally, but what the table as a whole is telling you. This is probably your best chance at predicting if you can win the hand, and honest I can't recommend it either because even with a lot of practice it is going to be unreliable, can easily degenerate into gambling instead of playing the proper odds, and it borders on telling you to be a psychic.

So to not answer your question, the real answer is to play good poker and not worry about long shot hands that you would have won big with. If it still bothers you, listen to your instincts when you get a feeling that a speculative hand might pay off, and keep track of how well you actually do.

Do this with low stakes and if (and most likely when) you find out you would have been better off not playing these hands then use that in your psychological arsenal to defend your better judgement against getting into these sorts of hands.

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