How do I calculate my expected value of shoving, including Fold Equity, in heads up play?
I know several factors are involved
- Pot Size
- My Stack
- His Stack
- My chance of winning if he calls
- His chance of folding when I bet
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Expected value of what kind of bet? All-In preflop, regular bet/ all in on flop, or on later streets?– MartinK13Jan 10, 2012 at 22:53
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Sorry, lost that on an edit. Fixed– Brian WebsterJan 10, 2012 at 22:57
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What if there are multiple opponents how do you calculate ev of raising then?– user1492May 5, 2014 at 4:27
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3 Answers
This will be pretty messy if I don't define some variables, so here goes:
- P$ = Current size of the pot
- S$ = Minimum of your stack vs your opponent's stack
- F% = Chance of your opponent folding to your shove (this should be between 0 and 1; divide percentages by 100 to get corresponding value)
- W% = Chance of you winning when called (this should be between 0 and 1; divide percentages by 100 to get corresponding value)
When he calls and you win, you earn:
P$ + S$
When he calls and you lose, you lose:
S$
So, if he always called, your EV would be:
EV = (W% * (P$ + S$)) - ((1 - W%) * S$)
But he doesn't always call. When he doesn't call, you win:
P$
So we can add that into the above:
EV = (F% * P$) + (1 - F%) * ((W% * (P$ + S$)) - ((1 - W%) * S$))
I used this formula for the basis of a Expected Value Calculator web-app at Grinderschool, which calculates EV, Required Fold %, and Required Win % given any/all of the variables represented in this equation.
answered Jan 10, 2012 at 23:13
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I like what you've done here. Note that the equation can become even more precise by incorporating the possibility that the pot will be split.– KenshinDec 22, 2012 at 3:14
The EV is (% he folds to All in * Current pot size) + (% of times opponent calls * % you will win * Total size of pot) - (% of times opponent calls * % you will lose * Amount that you bet/shove).
On the left of the "+" sign are the times without a showdown. On the right are the times with a showdown. The times you win or lose can be calculated either against his explicit hand, or against what you assume his range is.
answered Jan 12, 2012 at 4:01
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There are two problems with this: First, when you lose, you did not lose the entire pot size; you only lost the amount that you bet. Second, this does not account for the fact that he only sometimes fails to fold (e.g. you must devalue the amounts you win and lose when he calls by the frequency that he folds). Note that the existing answer properly accounts for both of those factors. Jan 12, 2012 at 7:33
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@JeffreyBlake Just edited. I noticed the mistakes I made, good catch. Thanks :). I'm paranoid now, this is right?– Toby Booth ♦Jan 12, 2012 at 14:04
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Toby, yes, that is right. It also matches my equation above, save that it converts the (1-x%) values into new variables. That's unnecessary, since the two are entirely related. Jan 12, 2012 at 16:00
EV = (F% * P$) + (1 - F%) * ((W% * (P$ + S$)) - ((1 - W%) * S$))
this formulae is correct only when P$+S$ = W$, where W$ is the amount earned at showdown. So this formulae as it is only applies at situations where villain open raises and we shove. As this is not always the case(not always W$ = P$+S$), a more general form of this formulae would be by substituting P$+S$ with W$.
