I just played a cash game hand yesterday that made me wonder if I'm too married to my overpairs. It's a headsup game, and we both have about 40X, with me slightly ahead. I wake up to QQ and raise to 4X preflop (my standard raise for the past hour). Villain calls. Flop is 442, I bet 5X, villain calls. Turn is 9, I bet 10X, villain calls. River is another 4, I shove. He calls and shows J9. Is it dangerous to shove on a board with potential quads like that, especially if he's calling two streets before that??
Why are you only worried about quads?
What beats you?
What hand might call that you beat?
JJ - 33 (except 99)
Hero should not have called pre flop with 2x
Pre flop call with 4x is wrong. And he does not have 44 with 3 on the board.
Pre flop villain should have raised AA, KK
In heads up you would likely get a raise from 99
Call pre flop with
A9 suited or 99 is in the range
J9 to me is a marginal call but this is heads up so OK
To me that is a good shove
VERY unlikely you are beat - to me just 99
The only hands (9x) that would call would likely call a big bet
In head up I don't really blame villain for making that call
He is only losing to AA-99 as 4 is not likely in your range
On the turn you were both pretty much pot committed
Let's say for the sake of argument that J9 is the worst hand this player calls the
Your hand beats and gets paid by: J9+,TT,JJ (54 combinations of hands)
You hand loses to: KK,AA,99,42+ (59 combinations of hands)
Using this alone we see that it is barely not a profitable shove:
54/113 * 20BB - 59/113 * 20BB = -0.88BB EV
However, let's now consider a much more realistic
Big Blind defending range and
river calling range:
- Remove TT-AA - These would probably 3-Bet pre-flop. I would include 99 too, except considering you are worried that 4's full of Q's 40BB deep with a SPR of 1:1 may not be a shove I'm going to assume the game dynamic to be passive.
- Remove 42-Q4 - Your opponent is unlikely to defend the
Big Blindwith these hands.
- Add 97+,T9 to the opponents
rivercalling range - Likely he would defend the BB with these hands and is certainly not folding the
riverif we know s/he calls with J9.
In a standard HU you could add more hands such as medium pairs that bluff catch, heck even Ace High; but as I said above I'm assuming the game dynamic is not aggressive at all.
Now the EV becomes profitable:
78/89 * 20BB - 11/89 * 20BB = +15BB
This is a monster profit in the long term given the stack sizes.