PokerStars now offers a $5,000 vacation package as a top prize for their $0.50 spin & go. What are my chances of getting that top prize?
PokerStars publishes the frequencies of prizes that you can expect when playing these spin and gos. From that frequency table, you can figure out your EV, based on the bankroll that you want to start with. That gives you the total number of tournaments that you can play and then the geometric distribution can give you the probability of getting a shot at the $5,000 vacation prize.
From this article, http://buriedinfo.com/pokerstars-spin-go/ you can see that even if you had $1000 to invest, that only results in a 6% probability of playing for the top prize, you would still have to win the tournament. A smaller starting bankroll would lead to a smaller probability - slim chances indeed.
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