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We are playing 5 cards game.
Imagine a player has three of a kind, e.g. KKKJ8 and he can exchange up to three cards.
What's better to do (statistically):
a) Exchange two cards. The strategy behind is to raise the chance of making 4 of a kind.
b) Exchange one card. The strategy behind is to raise the chance of making full house.
Thank you
The chance of a full house is the same whether you draw one or two. Drawing two slightly increases your chance of quads. Drawing one is more deceptive--it will generally cause your opponent to put you on two pair, so he'll be more likely to call with his own two pair.
Of course it depends on the situation, the players, the other rules, and so on; but generally speaking, 5-card-draw players draw one to trips, because the deception is worth more than the increased chance of quads.
Exchange 2 cards. 4 of a kind beats a full house.
Your chance of a full house does not go down. You could draw a pair. The chance of the second card matching the first is the same.
