Playing out of position on the river and missed your hand. Have played in a manner that you can represent a good hand. You are considering bluffing.

How often do you need to get fold to make the bluff profitable?

  • Add more info. Use some kind of handconventer and paste the hand. I also dont quite understand the question, you want to lead? Oct 26 '16 at 16:32

I'm using this formula, can be used for everything (when you bet or when you are deciding to call):

Odds = Risk / Pot*

* Pot is all the pot generated after bets you will win.

  • Bluff betting:

    First, why we should bluff?
    We bluff when we can be sure we have a worse hand. That's why we bluff, for force him to fold and win the pot with a worse hand. Usually bluffs are made when we got a failed project, we reach the river with absolutely nothing. When we analyze this kind of situation, we just assume that when villain calls us we lose the pot.

    Let's say pot is 2€. You bluff bet river 1€. Your risk is 1€ and the pot will be 3€ (when he folds. If he calls you lose, so just don't care about it). So 1/3 = 0.33 -> 33%.

    What means that 33%? If your villain folds more than 33% of times your bluffing will be profitable. EV+.

    If you bet the pot (2€) 2/4 = 0.5 -> 50%

    You can trace a more specific formula for this situation: Odds = bet / bet + pot

    But I really prefer to use the more general because you can used for betting and calling, see below.

  • Call bet:

    First, when we are thinking about calling a bet
    We would think about calling a bet when we know we would win sometimes. Then we can go and analyze the situation, do the maths and calculate if it's EV+ or EV- calling the bet. If we hold a hand with absolutely nothing we just don't even think about calling because even his bluffs can win us sometimes... Usually everybody has 2 types of bets, for value and for bluff, we analyze this situation when we know villain will bluff sometimes and we hold a hand that would win his bluffs, so we assume that when we call his bet we would lose against all his value bets and win all his bluffs.

    Let's say pot is 2€ and villain bets 1€. If you call, your risk is again 1€ but the winnings now will be 1+2+1 (your risk + pot + his bet) 1/4 = 0.25 -> 25%.

    What means that 25%? If your villain is bluffing more than 25% of times your call will be profitable. EV+. (It not necessarily have to be bluff, only be sure that more than 25% of the times you are winning the pot at the showdown...)

    If he bets the pot 2€. 2/6 = 0.33 -> 33% In this situation you can trace a more specific formula: Odds = your call / your call + pot + his bet

I suggest to use a general formulas, because you intend to understand more the way of poker instead of using an specific formula for each situation.

  • I don't understand what are you asking so... what do you mean about hero does not even have a bluff catcher? hero is you, hero is bluffing the river... so of course has no value, I suppose if villain calls you would lose at showdown 100% sure
    – Marc Pont
    Oct 27 '16 at 13:14
  • Ah okay, well that was just an extension of your question. If in this situation your hand is not even a bluffcatcher I wouldn't even think about calling.... I would fold or raise bluffing. But call is not an option.
    – Marc Pont
    Oct 27 '16 at 13:58

The easy case is bet the pot. You need a fold 1/2 the time. You risk 1 to win 2 (pot, your bet, opponent fold).

2  -1
2  -1

If they fold any one then you are even. You have put in 2 and won 2.

r is the fraction of the pot you bet   
  and the amount of the opponent call    
f is chance of a fold from you opponent   
the break even point is when you EV is 0  
EV = 0 = -r + f*(1 + r)    
r / (1 + r) = f

So if you think they will fold more than the break even point then it is profitable to bluff.

f       r
0.25    0.33
0.33    0.50
0.43    0.75
0.50    1.00
0.60    1.50
0.67    2.00
0.75    3.00

How much to bluff is tricky. A bigger bluff will get more folds but mathematically it has to get more folds.

Should bet the nuts same amount as bluff so they have to guess.

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