# Should I call a 4-bet preflop shove with AKs?

Recently played a Spin and Go game:

Everyone had ~same stack size (500), blinds 10/20 (was like the 3rd hand)

Hero SB: AKs
V1 Button: QQ
V2 BB: xx

V1 raises to 60
Hero re-raises to 180
V2 shoves
Hero calls

Afterwards I wondered if the final call was a good move. I feel that players play more loosely in Spin/Gos so it probably was a good call in that context.

But in a cash game would I want to call that final shove? I reckon that the hand range someone could do that would be AA, KK, QQ.

The odds are:

AA ~1:7
KK ~1:2
QQ ~1:1

I'd also reckon that only half or less players with QQ would 4-bet shove. But QQ is twice as likely as AA/KK (6 ways of making it, but only 3 for A/K)

So I reckon my odds of winning would be:

~1+1+1 : 7+2+1
~3:10
~1:4 (Assuming less than half QQ players would shove)

So would I be right in saying I should fold when I have to call more than ~1/4 pot?

• Most people use : for odds. AA vs AK is closer to 8:1. And I don't think you can just add odds like that. Commented Nov 6, 2016 at 14:21
• Why cant I add them? Isnt it just like a probability tree, and adding them is like adding different branches which are mutually exclusive events? Commented Nov 6, 2016 at 15:59
• Why don't you try converting to % and see if you get the same answer? Commented Nov 6, 2016 at 16:01
• Something seems wrong with your description of the action - you say that V1 (BTN) raised to 60, Hero (SB) 3bet to 180, then V2 (BB) jammed for 500 and you called - Are we to assume that V1 folded after V2 shoved then? If so, why have you listed V1's hand as `QQ` (how could you know?) and not given V2's hand at all? Do you mean that V2 had `QQ`? Commented Dec 20, 2016 at 12:46

If you go with your assumptions here that only AA, KK and QQ will 4 bet shove, you'll be a major dog half the time, and the other half the time you'll be a coinflip. In percentage terms, you'll win a bit more than 33% of the time. (50% of QQ hands (6 combos), roughly 13% of the AA hands (3 combos), and 33% of the KK hands (3 combos).

To profitably call when you're ~33% to win the pot, you need about 2:1 pot odds.

That said, I wouldn't take your ranges very seriously here. Against a brand new, never-seen-before opponent, caution is certainly warranted, but how many poker players have you met with such a limited 4-bet range nowadays? In other words... are you sure they don't have AK? Or AQs? Maybe JJ?

In 3 handed Spin & Go-s people shove with A-rag. Don't be surprised and snap call them. You will sometimes find out that they got AA or KK but in general it is +EV play especially with suited AK.

In cash games at a full ring table (9 players) it is an easy fold. You don't wanna gamble - you have an A high!

In tournaments there are lots of things to take into account: stage of tournament, ICM, bubble factor, what kind of a player who shoved allin is. I mean it is a very strong hand for tournaments. In microstakes I would say it is a snap call.

As best I can tell from your description of the action, there is a total of 740 in the pot after the shove and you're facing a call of an additional 320, meaning you have pot odds of 30.19% - `320 / (740 + 320)` - or about 2:1.

The equity of `AKs` against `QQ`+ AIPF is 34.59%. If you only include half of the possible `QQ` combinations (with 1 of the 3 combinations which share a suit with the `AKs`), then the `AKs` is 30.77% to win.

Therefore, yes, given these assumptions it could be considered correct to call here (and in any situation where you have more than 30.19% equity), ignoring all other considerations like ICM etc.

However, as others have mentioned, I would be extremely surprised if you're facing a range as strong as `QQ`+ here on average. Depending on the stakes you're playing, Villain's range could easily be as wide as `22`+, `Ax`, `KQ` - against this range your `AKs` is 52.69% and therefore this should be a snap call IMO.

Adding odds like that is not accurate