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Recently played a Spin and Go game:

Everyone had ~same stack size (500), blinds 10/20 (was like the 3rd hand)

Hero SB: AKs
V1 Button: QQ
V2 BB: xx

V1 raises to 60
Hero re-raises to 180
V2 shoves
Hero calls

Afterwards I wondered if the final call was a good move. I feel that players play more loosely in Spin/Gos so it probably was a good call in that context.

But in a cash game would I want to call that final shove? I reckon that the hand range someone could do that would be AA, KK, QQ.

The odds are:

AA ~1:7
KK ~1:2
QQ ~1:1

I'd also reckon that only half or less players with QQ would 4-bet shove. But QQ is twice as likely as AA/KK (6 ways of making it, but only 3 for A/K)

So I reckon my odds of winning would be:

~1+1+1 : 7+2+1
~3:10
~1:4 (Assuming less than half QQ players would shove)

So would I be right in saying I should fold when I have to call more than ~1/4 pot?

  • Most people use : for odds. AA vs AK is closer to 8:1. And I don't think you can just add odds like that. – paparazzo Nov 6 '16 at 14:21
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    Why cant I add them? Isnt it just like a probability tree, and adding them is like adding different branches which are mutually exclusive events? – Shuri2060 Nov 6 '16 at 15:59
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    Why don't you try converting to % and see if you get the same answer? – paparazzo Nov 6 '16 at 16:01
  • Something seems wrong with your description of the action - you say that V1 (BTN) raised to 60, Hero (SB) 3bet to 180, then V2 (BB) jammed for 500 and you called - Are we to assume that V1 folded after V2 shoved then? If so, why have you listed V1's hand as QQ (how could you know?) and not given V2's hand at all? Do you mean that V2 had QQ? – 3N1GM4 Dec 20 '16 at 12:46
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If you go with your assumptions here that only AA, KK and QQ will 4 bet shove, you'll be a major dog half the time, and the other half the time you'll be a coinflip. In percentage terms, you'll win a bit more than 33% of the time. (50% of QQ hands (6 combos), roughly 13% of the AA hands (3 combos), and 33% of the KK hands (3 combos).

To profitably call when you're ~33% to win the pot, you need about 2:1 pot odds.

That said, I wouldn't take your ranges very seriously here. Against a brand new, never-seen-before opponent, caution is certainly warranted, but how many poker players have you met with such a limited 4-bet range nowadays? In other words... are you sure they don't have AK? Or AQs? Maybe JJ?

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In 3 handed Spin & Go-s people shove with A-rag. Don't be surprised and snap call them. You will sometimes find out that they got AA or KK but in general it is +EV play especially with suited AK.

In cash games at a full ring table (9 players) it is an easy fold. You don't wanna gamble - you have an A high!

In tournaments there are lots of things to take into account: stage of tournament, ICM, bubble factor, what kind of a player who shoved allin is. I mean it is a very strong hand for tournaments. In microstakes I would say it is a snap call.

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As best I can tell from your description of the action, there is a total of 740 in the pot after the shove and you're facing a call of an additional 320, meaning you have pot odds of 30.19% - 320 / (740 + 320) - or about 2:1.

The equity of AKs against QQ+ AIPF is 34.59%. If you only include half of the possible QQ combinations (with 1 of the 3 combinations which share a suit with the AKs), then the AKs is 30.77% to win.

Therefore, yes, given these assumptions it could be considered correct to call here (and in any situation where you have more than 30.19% equity), ignoring all other considerations like ICM etc.

However, as others have mentioned, I would be extremely surprised if you're facing a range as strong as QQ+ here on average. Depending on the stakes you're playing, Villain's range could easily be as wide as 22+, Ax, KQ - against this range your AKs is 52.69% and therefore this should be a snap call IMO.

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Adding odds like that is not accurate
Your EV is

-320 + (1/4*1/8.5 + 1/4*1/3 + 1/2*1/2)*1060 = 64.5

Positive EV is call

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