6

Villain is 37/15/9 (3b) over ~450 hands. RFI 32%(7/22) from SB. This is the first time he's limp-called from this spot, altough he does it slightly more than half the time from most other positions. Average post-flop aggression. Pretty standard what you'd expect from a loose-passive fishy player type.

How do you see villains range at this river, and more importantly, how did you get to that conclusion? Thanks.

$1.00 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BB): $228.10
UTG: $234.74
CO: $65.28
BTN: $61.22
SB: $436.96

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.5) Hero has Q♣J♥

fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $5.00, SB calls $4.00

Flop: ($10.00, 2 players) 8⋄9♠T♥
SB checks, Hero bets $6.00, SB calls $6.00

Turn: ($22.00, 2 players) 5⋄
SB checks, Hero bets $13.00, SB calls $13.00

River: ($48.00, 2 players) 9♣
SB checks, Hero bets $34.00, SB raises to $116.00, Hero ???

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1
  • IMO his range is something like [A-8,9,10], [K-9,10], [Q-9,10,J], [J-9,10] – Digital fire Oct 8 '12 at 21:09
5

The guy just filled up, so this is a fold IMO. His range to do this on the river seems to be pure value or overvaluing a 9 putting you on a over pair. But i aspect a check-call with most 9s such as J9 or a raise somewhere in the hand as he would be open-ended. The way this played and without more information I fold, as I expect to see 89 and 9T.

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2
  • +1. You expect too see 89 and T9. I'd add 88s and TTs here. With such a solid re-raise over such aggression - I agree, this is a fold for sure. – Nemoden Nov 8 '12 at 7:16
  • +1 What is he calling you with on the flop and turn? Not with a T high hand after you double barrel a flop like that and with no flush draw out there... definitively fold. I'm thinking 9T, TT, 99 or 88 – Jorge Córdoba Mar 1 '13 at 1:19
3

He has Trip 9s or Straight. I doubt that he had 2 pairs on the flop. I'd expect the villain to reraise the flop with 2 pairs (with a set too btw), but he didn't.

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2

I'd put him on T9, 98, A9, K9, Q9. Its a blind battle and hes going to be calling down light and trapping. J9/Q9,97 should prolly be weighted pretty low since he might be a little more fearful of the straight/higher 9s. TT,99,88 essentially never gets here.

16 combos you win...

A9-8
K9-4
Q9-2
J9-1
97-1

12 combos you lose...

T9-6
98-6

You should win 60% of the time. You would still have pot odds to call if he had only T9,98,A9

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2

My first instinct would be to snap call it, but on second thought he might have just filled up here with 89, 9T or 95. I would consider 88, 99 or TT less likely as I would suspect even a bad player to raise those out of position to open the pot.

I would expect A9, K9, Q9 to open too in a blind battle. Certainly A9. Limping and calling, he'd most likely would have done that with just the hands that beat you.

On the other hand, I would also expect most players to raise two pair or a set on the flop. But since he's loose-passive, those guys just call you down. When they show agrression they usually have it.

I suspect this guy would, even if passive, to open here with most of the range that you beat (A9, K9, Q9...) and 88, 99, TT and just limp / call with the range that is now beating you.

Chalk it up to bad luck and fold.

How did it turn out?

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1

You are getting 2.4 : 1

If villain is bluffing 1 in 3.4 you should call

Give him credit for any of the hands that have you beat
Granted call pre with 8To would be questionable but lets look at this defensively
There are 36 of those hands
But those hands should have raised the flop and turn as there was a straight draw and then a straight and flush draw

Are there any value hands you beat?
No

You tie QJ but I think that would just call

Are there 15 bluff hands that get there?
You said loose passive
A8, A9, AT, KT, QT, JT, AJ, KJ, J9s
He has like 100 bluffs that could have gotten there
And it makes sense to check call the flop and turn with those hands
Some are kind of loose calls but he was getting 2.6 : 1

Mathematically there are more than enough buff hands to justify a call. Even with giving Villain more value hands than should call pre (89, 8T, 9T) you should still mathematically call.

Villain is risking $116 to pick up $82. They need to get a fold out of you 2/3 of the time. You could have a boat and you could be on a missed draw.

If Villain had 89 or 88 they should just call the river.

The only likely hands you are dead to are 99, TT, and 9Ts. The way they played the hand those hands do not make sense.

If you think villain is capable of making a bluff then call.

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0

The assumption that this is a spot he is never bluffing is wrong, he could. You have to look at your river betting range and then decide what to do. Let us look at your river betting range. I think it contains the following hands:

QJ, J7s and 76s perhaps, 88-TT, T9s, 98s. I am of course not sure about this, but I think this is a reasonable assumption to make.

As you can see, you can have full houses that would play exactly the same way as your QJ. Your opponent is representing a boat and you do not block any of your opponent's value range. Besides from J7s and 76s (I doubt it's in your pre-flop raising range in the first place) you are at the bottom of your range. Because of these two things you should be looking to let your hand go. Calling with most/all of your full houses makes sense, since your hand is stronger and it blocks the value hands your opponent might have. This way you are playing an unexploitable balanced strategy.

Conclusion: you are at the bottom of your range and you don't block your opponents value range. Fold.

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