I was watching poker on tv and one guy had 7♥4♠, the other had A♠8♣ and the flop was 6♥2♥8♥. The commentator said it was a flip between the two - wouldn't 7♥4♠ be a favourite, as it has more outs then just the A8?
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1 Answer
There are 990 possible distinct outcomes from this situation because there are 45 cards left in the deck, so there are (45 * 44 = 1,980) exact turn and river cards which can come, but when calculating equity like this, it doesn't matter which order they come in, so 1,980 / 2 = 990.
Of those 990 possible runouts, the 7♥4♠ wins 477 (48.18%) of them, while the A♠8♣ wins 513 (51.82%) of them, so the A♠8♣ is a favourite here to have the best hand once the turn and river have been dealt. However, it is common to refer to any matchup where neither hand is a favourite by about 55% or more as being a (coin)flip, a race or whatever terminology you prefer for a situation where both hands have a relatively equal chance of being best once the whole board is dealt.