0

Blinds : 100K/200K

Hero: 27.1M.
Villain: 26.5M.

7 players

Hero : J♣ J♥

Villain : A♥ A♠

Preflop

Hero opens for 800K.
Villain raises to 2.2M.
Hero re-raises to 5.0M.
Villain calls.

Flop (Pot = 10.0M-10.3M):

7⋄9♠T♥

Hero (22.1M) bets 5.0M.
Villain calls.

Turn (Pot = 20.0M-20.3M):

7⋄9♠T♥ Q♣

Hero (17.1M) checks.
Villain bets 16.5M (all-in).
Hero?

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  • What info do we have on villain? What are Hero and Villain's absolute positions at this 7 handed table? Personally I think question would be better without revealing Villain's hand too - it's unnecessary, not information you had when making your decision and is likely to skew peoples analysis of the spot. – 3N1GM4 Jan 4 '17 at 22:06
  • Also, what's the thinking behind the 4x open pre? Seems huge, especially for what I presume is a FT, or last 2/3 tables stage of an MTT. – 3N1GM4 Jan 4 '17 at 22:10
  • @Paparazzi I'd be interested to know why, if you'd be kind enough to share your thinking? – 3N1GM4 Jan 4 '17 at 22:22
  • @Paparazzi and you're satisfied that a 4x open is good for these reasons even without knowing anything about what the "standard" open has been at this table? What if everyone's been 8x-ing (unlikely, granted, but we know nothing about the table dynamic from the question) and a mere 4x raise would be likely to result in a family pot? We don't even know the stacks of any other players at the table - perhaps everyone is super deep. My original comment was intended more to elicit some further detail from the OP than anything else, but thanks for sharing your perspective - much appreciated. – 3N1GM4 Jan 4 '17 at 22:33
  • Also, we have no idea of absolute position, we might be making the initial raise from the CO, so are OOP to one player remaining and in position against the other two... Lots of info missing from this question which would aid better analysis IMO. – 3N1GM4 Jan 4 '17 at 22:34
3

My read is villain was happy to let you build the pot. You slowed down and villain put you on exactly the hand you had and wants to shut it down. You have 10 outs.

I don't get the re-raise to 5.0M pre flop. What do you think you are ahead of? Villain is not raising there with TT or AK. You should just call and hope for a jack. You are deep stacked. Short stacked you should have folded.

You got yourself in a bad spot with an inflated pot but why would you shut down on the turn. You improved to a straight draw. If villain had QQ you were already behind. You could represent QQ. By checking there villain took QQ out of your range.

I actually like the pre flop open. Play TT+ and AKs like that so they don't put you on on AA or KK when you do that. On JJ I know I am likely behind but it can actually be loser. That pre flop re-raise was not just bad money it ranged you. You should have only done that with like KK or AA but still no way villain puts you on 99 or TT. If had just called that is a very scary board to the villain because now 99, TT, and JJ are in your range. It is a great flop for you - you have 6 outs and fold equity. Bet 1/2 the pot on the flop and it still cost you less than the pre flop re-raise that did zero for you. On the turn you pick up 4 more outs for a total of 10 and you pick up more fold equity. I fire 1/2 the pot again. No way a sane AA or KK pushes as you have shown too much strength on an even a more scary board. Say river is a blank it would take balls to fire again. But you can fire 1/4 the pot on any scare card - 6,7,8,9,T,J,Q,K like you want a call. At best you will get called and you still have like 12.8 behind. If you hit any of your 10 outs then push (you have like 17.2 behind in a pot of 17.6). It can look like bluff and you might get looked up. As scary as it is I think you have a positive EV on that flop if you just call pre flop. For sure I think you have a positive EV when you improve on the turn.

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  • 2
    Good answer! Short and to the point. I don't think there is much more to add. – Grinch91♦ Jan 4 '17 at 15:34
  • Agree 100%, especially regarding the 4bet pre - can't think of any good reason to bloat the pot pre like this (and therefore make betting on each subsequent street bigger too) - you'll only get significant action when way behind or occasionally when flipping against AK. – 3N1GM4 Jan 4 '17 at 22:09

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