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One entertaining hand Reinkemeier vs. Seiver

High stakes tournament deep stacks
Reinkemeier has Seiver covered but not by much

Seiver opens in early position for like a min raise - hard to tell as don't know if antes were in play
K♠T♠

Reinkemeier decides to flat the on the BB
A♠A♥

Flop
Q♠4♣2♣
Check and Seiver bets just short of 1/2 the pot

Turn
J♣
Check, shove, fold

Do you check or fold here?

I cannot see a fold here. Can anyone justify a fold here?

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  • I believe it is a minraise pre FWIW, as I think they're playing 7 handed 300k/600k/75k based on the pot size after Seiver opens. I could be wrong though, just glanced at the first few seconds of the video so far. – 3N1GM4 Jan 30 '17 at 10:31
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I am not going to accept my own answer

I cannot see a fold here. I get it is rough spot but if you are going to under rep aces then you have to call here. After two checks you have to expect Seiver would make a play at the pot. No way Seiver is putting him an AA. It only has to be 1/3 chance of a bluff for a call. Even with ICM like a 1/2 chance of a bluff.

Have a plan! If Reinkemeier was afraid of two clubs then he should have shoved the flop. Don't check the flop if you are going to fold to another club.

If Reinkemeier held the Ace of clubs to take Ax out of Seiver's range then I get checking the flop. If a club does hit then he has a draw to the nut flush. Not the stated question but I disagree with the check on the turn with on that board. It connects with both straight and flush draws that Seiver could have or represent.

Seiver could be on AQ thinking it was good and not clubs.

You are beat by a flush but like I said then don't check the flop.

Reinkemeier is only behind JK and Seiver could be bluffing here with nothing or a draw like he has. Upon review I guess Seiver could be holding QQ, 44, and 22.

Even a semi bluff KT or a pair with one club is mathematically a call.

Seveir could be doing this with a made flush and no ace but that is only KQ, T9, 98, and 87. But would he really lead out with T9 or lower.

By not raising pre the problem is there is very little to limit either player's range.

If you listen Seiver puts him on AQ or KQ and is absolutely disgusted he folded AA. Seiver has no club is why I think he made the play on the turn rather than the river as there is like 50% chance Reinkemeier has a big club.

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  • Seiver was the one representing JJ+ - I agree I would never fold here either. Just no logical hand beating AA plays this way. – Kanan Farzali Jan 30 '17 at 13:00
  • @KananFarzali In the video Reinkemeier lists KT and T9 as possible hands. And Seiver states he did not put him on AA. As I stated a made flush afraid of the lone A clubs would play this way. – paparazzo Jan 30 '17 at 18:42
  • I think two things you're overlooking and it is actually important, these guys are good friends, they play a lot which each other. This would effect their decisions, also they were playing for $15+million. Both the fact they were playing for a huge amount of money and they knew each other extremely well has to effect your analysis. – Grinch91 Jan 31 '17 at 11:25
  • @Grinch91 No it does not have to effect my analysis. $15+million does not make it a good fold. Seiver was outright disgusted with the fold. – paparazzo Jan 31 '17 at 11:39
  • @Paparazzi, I'm not arguing it makes a good fold or not. I'm stating that if you were playing for $15+ million it would effect most people's decision making. You asked can anyone justify a fold, I gave you two valid justifications, never said they were objectively good poker. Granted my comment is probably better suited to the above question rather than this answer. – Grinch91 Jan 31 '17 at 12:53
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EP raise is usually very tight range, so BB puts UTG range to 99+, AQ+. Not sure about slowplaying AA out of position as it is never a good idea to check call with AA. BB underrepresented his hand - I think he should have called turn shove. Flash will never shove on turn (in my opinion). So logically BB is losing only to a set of jacks or queens. Tough spot but I would call here. Not sure why BB folded here.

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