Odds of losing multiple set over set hands vs hitting a royal

Question

I just finished a terrible session. Can't really feel bad about it as it was really cold decks. But I feel like I have better odds of hitting a royal than I do of catching this much run bad ever again.

Just so you have an idea of HOW BAD I was running. On my last hand of the evening on a 1/2NL 9 Handed. I'm in the SB when I look down at K♥K♣. I have about $350 in front of me.

• UTG raises $15, Folds around to the Hijack.
• Hijack Calls $15
• I raise $45 (Yes, I could have raised more. I am aware)
• Both Call.
• Flop is 4♣, 7♣, 2♥
• I bet $120
• UTG Calls, Hijack Goes all in for $200
• UTG and I both Call
• A♣ hits on the turn.
• I ship it, UTG Calls.
• Both have a set (77, 44).
• River a Blank. FML.

So what are the odds of losing two set over set hands & losing with an over pair verses two sets in one hand?

Do I have a better chance of hitting a royal than catching this much of run bad ever again?

Answer 1

My maths might be a little wrong but I don't think it'll be too off.

A set is flopped about 11.8% of the time.

Odds of each flop card not flopping a set is (48/50) * (47/49) * (46/48) = 88.2%, or 11.8% to flop a set.

Lets just round that 11.8% to 12%. Odds of two people flopping a set are 12/100 * 12/100 which is 144/10000=0.0144 or 1.44%.

Odds of hitting a Royal Flush is 1/64,974, or 0.00153907717% (I just googled this btw). So yeah a Royal flush isn't more likely.

Answer 2

There are 4 ways to get a 4 and 7 and then 40 other cards taking out 4,7,K
4 * 40 = 160

There is 1 way to flop a royal

Pre SB KK with a raise and a call in front you and you raise small? They are getting 2.5:1 to call. You need to put out $60 for 2:1 or even $90. If they have AA you are going broke here so don't even worry about AA. You need to fold out small pair and draws like 78s. You could get looked up by QQ, JJ, TT and AKs that you dominate. Scoop the pot and pick up $30 is not bad. This is not the way to defend KK out of position.

That flop should not hit anyone. Why do you over bet that flop? I get you are not ahead as we know the cards but 95% of the time you are ahead here. You don't want to fold out QQ, JJ, TT and AKs that you dominate. I get bet like 1/2 the pot to charge a club draw but that board is so dry I would consider a check raise. You bet 90% of the pot - that basically just keeps hands you are behind in the pot.

Why push when an ace hit the turn? Why did you not learn from your over bet on the turn with an all in and a call? That is a road flair that you are beat. So you picked up nut a flush draw. Now you are behind an ace. It fills up a flush draw. You are not going to fold out the player all in. You are not going to fold out a better hand. If a club hits on the river you can still bet and probably get looked up. I get you might need to call if UTG pushes but there was no good reason to commit all your chips in that spot.

I get you feel like this was bad run but getting stacked here with an over pair is bad play.