Do I call a turn all-in with KK with against a possible flush?

Question

I don't recall all the details about this hand, but here's what I do know.

Some folds and possibly some limps; I forget exactly.

$1/$2 NL

Villain (Has hero easily covered) in Seat 1

Hero (~$450) in Seat 4 with K♠ Kx

Villain raises to $25

Folds to Hero

Hero raises to $75

Folds to villain who calls

Flop: T♠ 6♠ 3x

Villain checks

Hero bets $150

Villain calls

Turn: Q♠

Villain goes all-in.

So at this point I have about $225 or so left, so I'm getting about 3-1 if I call. Of course I have an overpair and a just picked up a flush draw, but villain could already have the nut flush. I feel like the pot is too big to fold, considering I have the flush redraw and there's a decent chance I'm still ahead. However, villain could have A♠ x♠ so I'd be drawing dead. So I have trouble seeing how to fold, but at the same time calling seems like I'm getting way too much committed with just an overpair. This leads me to believe I did something wrong in getting there.

I'd rather not focus too much on this specific villain, and I didn't know much about him, but for completeness here's what I do know. I had only been at the table for about a half hour, but I had already seen villain open raise preflop to $20-25 or so. He had about $900 when I sat down (max buy-in $300), yet he was complaining when I got there about how long it'd been since he flopped a set.

Also, on the very first hand I was there I was dealt AKo. This same villain limped, seat 2 raised to $10, and then I reraised to $30. Both called, villain check-called a 3/4 pot size bet when I flopped the king, and then after check-check turn he tried to bluff the river. I called him and he showed the A which was likely half of the missed nut-flush draw. I don't know if that info helps, but that's about all I had on this particular villain.

Answer 1

The reason we need opponent tendencies here is to come up with an accurate preflop range to call a 3 bet with. I would default it to JJ+, AQs+, AKo.

You are behind AA, possibly with a redraw to a flush if he doesn't have the A♠, behind QQ with a redraw, and you have the rest crushed. His AK and AQ hands can't be flushes yet. Adding AsJs strengthens his range, but as long as his JJ and AK/AQ hands bluff the flush card,

I call.

Board: Ts 6s 3h Qs
Dead:  

         equity   win     tie     pots won  pots tied   
Hand 0:  64.352%  62.88%  01.47%  747       17.50     { KdKs }
Hand 1:  35.648%  34.18%  01.47%  406       17.50     { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

Answer 2

If the villain really has made a flush, especially the nut flush, I think he would be making a mistake to put you all-in on the turn.

He ought to bet only as large as he thinks he can to keep you in, without giving you the right odds to draw, with the expectation of committing you to an all-in on the river.

This looks more like the opposite: A shove to protect against you drawing to the backdoor flush. More likely he has a queen, or maybe two pair, or maybe even JJ or an underpair.

If he has nothing and is just drawing to an Asx flush, then you are also better shape. Or some combo thing—say he has AsTx

In any case, like some respondents above, I think you are way ahead of his range; and with the second nut flush draw in addition to your overpair, I would certainly call.

Of course, it can be hard to range bad players. But mainly their overly splashy play widens their range, which just further argues for a call.

Answer: Call

Answer 3

Given the brief history of the villain, the pot size and your flush draw, I would call.

• It's been a while since I played a cash game, but $20 - $25 preflop raise sounds very aggressive, and you say the villain has done this a few times.
• You say the villain was on $900 when you sat down, and is now on $450, that tells me he lost half his stack in 30 minutes: again, overly aggressive.
• Lastly, and this may just be my attitude, but I don't respond well to bullies, even less so those who seem to be bullying just for the sake of table image. Consider what would happen if you folded: Villain wins $300 or more, and the message to the table is clearly "I am in charge, and you don't even know what I was holding". Calling with KK is a respectable decision. If you win you win big and the villain is knocked down a peg, if you lose then you regroup knowing it was the right call.

Answer 4

I think it's a tough decision on the turn, but still it's a clear call given the line he took in this hand. I mean you represent a hand such as AK that missed on the flop since you bet that big. This villain seems to be a bluffy kind of player and it seems he is more than happy getting it in with any pairs, flushdraws(on turn) etc. I think you are a head lots of times in this spot vs a player like that.

When you think about it, why would he lead out and shove on the turn with the nuts? who does that? obviously people want to check if they hit the nuts. I mean, the hands I can see him having there is maybe like As6x, maybe like AsQx floated the flop.. If he had a set I don't think he would lead the turn there either. He just isn't representing too much.

Most players would shove that flop if they flopped a good flushdraw in a 3bet pot. Some times he might show up with QT or something, but I would never fold that turn with your hand. Especially not when you have the redraw as well.

Answer 5

Given the small information it just looks like he has some kind of AQ i can't see him having flush here because if he had it he wouldn't go allin he would just check and wait for you to push or would make at least a value bet.

Since you got backdoor flush draw its a easy call here you'r mostly ahead.

Answer:call

Answer 6

Pre
Villain opened for $25 (12.5 bb). Unless villain is a maniac that is JJ+ and maybe AKs. Villain calls $75 so rule out AA. You have blocker on KK so JJ, QQ, maybe AKs.

Flop
Villain cannot be on AK spades as you have the K spades. AJ spades does not make sense with action pre. QQ or JJ would check call. TT should check raise especially with flush draw on the board.

Turn
Nut flush would check call. What makes sense here is QQ that is afraid of the flush draw. Maybe TT that is afraid of the spade. A check raise would give you odds to call a flush draw. If you put villain on QQ or TT you are getting pot odds to call as you have 11 outs. (44-11)/11 = 3:1. This could be a bluff. I say a definite call.

Answer 7

I don't think you can make a sound judgement here that is little better than a guess. It seems you certainly don't have enough info on the opponent, aside from him limping in Preflop (often a sign of passivity), thus his turn shove can be conceived as tighter than usual if that's true. Also his ~10xbb Preflop open will usually be oversized from experience. It could be the table norm however and may be due to stack depths around the table. Thats for you to judge of course.

As for pot odds it's a mute point. That's a relative assumption based on range reading, as to whether it's good value or not. Unless you can put him on a range, you can't judge the pot odds correctly.

Like I said though, lack of a solid read makes it guesswork. I doubt any answer you get here will satisfy what good players will understand as solid poker theory.