Tough spot with drawing hand

Question

Online sit and go triple up tourney. Table starts 9 handed, top 3 triple their buy in. Everyone starts with 1500.

Blinds 15/30. I look down at 8♠9♠ in late mp. UTG limps and it folds to me. My stack is 1050. I decide to limp because I'm the short stack and my hand plays well in a multi way pot. Folds to bb who checks.

Flop J♠T♥3♠

BB leads for 40 into 105. UTG calls and I call.

Turn 4♣

BB bets 75 and utg calls. I'm getting 5:1 on a call (75 to win 375) but I'm not sure if i should call or raise. If I raise I think i would have to jam, because at that point I would be left with very little behind. I'm worried if I call and miss I'll be left with only ~900 and in a tough spot for the rest of the tourney. I'm also worried that I won't get action if I call and hit. I could take down a decent pot immediately if I jam and they fold, and I would have tons of outs if I get called.

Is calling or raising better in this spot. If I raise, should I jam?

Spoiler:

I decide on a flat call. The river is the 7♣, giving me the nut straight. Both players check. I bet 225 into 450 and both players fold.

Answer 1

On the flop and turn in every hand you have to have a raise range with both very strong hands and bluffs that have equity. I think on the flop you are too deep to check-raise. If the chips go in, you are committed, but always behind. It is not a good spot. A better hand to choose would be 98 without a flush draw, for example. Where you could still fold to a reshove.

Now on the turn you can shove 33 and JT for value, that is it really. These hand are in my opinion even very unlikely, since they would generally raise the flop on such a wet board. My point is, if you raise on this turn, you don't have much value, so you should be very selective with your bluffs.

I personally think 9s8s is a perfect hand to bluff with in this spot as a bluff, because the hand plays really well this way. When called against a set or one/two pair, you still have equity. But the most important part is you fold out hands that have you completely crushed like suited aces, kings, or queens with spades. Or perhaps UTG was trapping pre-flop with ace king. Your opponents simply have to fold these draws since they are not getting the right odds. If you'd just call you might get into trouble and run into a bigger flush or straight when you hit. Also, 98 does not block some weak hands your opponents might have that have to fold to a jam: AT, KT, QT, KQ, As5s etc.

Now whether you should raise or jam. You should probably jam in this spot. To make sure your opponents are folding their draws. And to get value with your good hands/not let them see a cheap river with their possible draws. Besides, your opponents' ranges are very wide and weak. If they don't realise this you can get away with overbluffing. Let's put them in a tough spot with a little too many bluffs!

Answer 2

I took another look at this and it is not so simple.

Don't get how the SB folded getting 7:1

Pre I think call is fine as it is the type of hand that does well multi-way.

On the flop 40 into 105 is strange as it is not big enough to fold out draws. JJ TT would not just limp pre. BB likely hit a pair. If UTG had a J they should have raised. So they could have a T or a 3 or two overs.

On the flop you have 15 outs. OK they could be on AK that kills the Q or a bigger flush but that is poker. 88, 99, or 89 run outs are probably winners so take it as 16 outs. You are 57% to win. Even with 15 outs you are 54%. Since the pot is small I am OK with flatting here. Not really worth raising here to try and pick up a small pot. If you do get called then they might slow down and if you hit you want them betting into you.

You are only behind on the flop to a shove if one has a set, KQ, or two bigger spades. If both have a pair and an over with one spade you are still 47% which is probably the worse you are looking at.

Turn not likely the 4 hit either one. BB of 1/3 still seems like a pair. Again should be charging more to price out draws. UTG could still be on a T, 3, or two overs.

Turn you still have 15 outs. You are are only a 2:1 dog getting 5:1. You are getting over twice the odds you need to call. You cannot fold here.

Yes you are on a stack size that if you raise you need to jam. If you bet 300 they are getting 3:1 and that is 1/3 your stack. So you are in a situation of a big over bet the pot.

If you jam you are going to fold out most hands they hold and pick up a nice 375. A problem with a jam is you cannot have JJ, TT, 33, or JT so it looks like semi bluff draw. JJ and TT would reaised pre and all 4 should have raised that flop to protect from draws. OK maybe you spiked a set of fours on the turn. If they think about it AJ, KJ, and QJ should call and you have no blockers. A T with 2 spades might call. AT spades and KQ spades will call. Yes you will fold out any weaker hands but you are putting 900 at risk and it is not a slam dunk you will get a fold and your draws are good. If you had KQ spades it would be different as you block some hands that might call and your draws are good other than Ax spades.

It is a cheap call. I think just call here rather than put my whole stack at risk. Based on small bets they are not putting you on a draw so you might get paid off. You have position.

A queen or a spade on the river you need to fold to a jam. A call also protects you from better draws. I don't see them bluffing the river.

Answer 3

Your open-ender is about 31% to win and your flush is about 34% to win. the bet to you is 20% for you to win. You can raise it to 31% in the lower 8 out open-ender scenario. So if the pot is 375 to you at 75 to call, that's asking you for 20% as you noted 5:1. 30% of $375 is about $90 (.3x300) plus about $22 (.3x70 + .3x5) equals $112 pre-river to bet the open-ender. Now there's a lot more to consider than just that, but you want a safe bet that's safer. Of course the river is bingo-bango-bongo for you, so your strategy is just get your opponent to part with his stack (and you've already noticed getting pot-committed in your own hand is worth thinking about so clearly you should be able to think through how to get your opponent into that position also).

Your hand is pretty well disguised. You are looking to get value out of betting against opponent's hands like pairs, and over-pairs. It's unlikely you'll get value from an opponent's under pairs.

You're next decision is to figure out how much you can extract from your opponent(s). You've got the nuts with your straight on a board that can't give a better hand. Knowing that your hand decimates all comers including trips, JJ, 10 10, along with QQ, KK and AA, (or any other pair or two-pair etc) you want to make a bet that will be called or raised if those are the hands your opponents hold. That bet you are about to make also depends on who you are playing and the many many variables of who they are (basically the person you have been observing and the information you have accrued about their play). If they are on tilt, shove. If they are a call-station, shove. If they look like the side mirrors on their 57 Chevy are about to rattle off because they are so excited over their AA against a board that your well-disguised hand has now crushed, shove. Otherwise, you might just play the long game and go for a standard minimum bet or maybe one-third of the pot.

I wouldn't overthink your opponents fold against your half-pot bet - some of your opponents just aren't cut out to gamble. You made a decision based on what was in front of you and learned something from it. There's nothing wrong with getting out a lovely tic of toast either for your opponents since the little "jam," you are about to serve, is just what is called for when your hand is unbeatable and your opponent is either misreading you or not reading you at all. I think you are 100% right in considering issues of pot-committment and your question goes to the heart of the matter: How do I get my opponent to pot commit. Short answer, guess their hand and then bet a percentage that will either make them raise to get full value or call and give at least some of their stack to you. A pair of Aces for example will have a high percentage of wins on a board like that. But have they got Aces? It's your read. Your percentage of bet size versus pot size here options are unlimited since you are unbeatable. It's then just a matter of "how" to get those cute little wafers your opponent has in front of him into the middle of the table!!! Overbet and your fish is gone, underbet and your trophy for the tourney is a picture of you holding up a goldfish instead of the 25 footer in Jaws the tournament is offering as a prize - all three ton of him! Arrr!

Oh yea, almost forgot, not sure where those 15 outs Paparazzi's post discusses come from - There's nine for a flush draw and 8 for an open ender and eliminate the cross-overs (Qs and 7s) and that is 16 (which Paparazzi does eventually come to), but for none of the reasons Paparazzi states like 88 or 99 run-outs. There were three best river cards for your hand in the deck to hit on the river: 7c, 7d, 7h, any of which is unbeatable. The 7s would have opened up being beat by a better flush.