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6 handed 1/2 cash
All around 100 bb but bb at 30
Pre
Hero in CO with T♠ 8♠
UTG open for 4 bb with one caller, I call, btn fold, sb fold, bb calls.
I am lovin it.
Flop
Pot is 17 bb
A♠ J⋄ 7⋄ which is semi good for me
check, 9 bb, call, fold (me)
If I give myself 1 out for runner runner spade and 1/2 for runner nut straight I have 6 outs. I am 1/7.5 but I am not likely to pick up 70 bb if I hit. Felt like I need at least 8 outs to make the call.
Should I have called?
I think that calling here would be the worst play and I agree with your reasoning. Additionally, one of your outs (9 of diamonds) either helps another player out even more or else kills your potential action.
I would say however that although folding is fine here, raising would be better than calling if you were to play on (although I'd like it much more with slightly deeper stacks). In fact, when you mix in some speculative hands like suited one-gappers, your bluffing frequency with them should go up to make them profitable and this is a prime spot: you have some outs, the pot already has at least some value, you show a lot of strength with a legitimate range of strong hand possibilities, and you're in position. If re-raised, you could safely fold, and if just called, you have a couple options on the turn depending on what falls.
I think pre-flop the call is generally bad, but if the table was loose-passive pre-flop, but tight-passive post then it could be good.
As for the flop call, again depends on your opponent.
For arguments sake let's say their range pre-flop is 99+, AJ+, KJs, KQo
Another assumption I will make is that the opponent will check-fold any non-ace / non-set hand on the turn, but will show-down with any ace or set.
In this case they'll hit the flop around 40% of the time. If we boost this up to about 50% for the turn then it is marginally bad to float, except for the times when we get to stack our opponent.
The equity of this alone is approximately:
0.08 * 0.5 * 85 = +3.4BB
E.g. the value of calling to hit a 9 on the turn for when they have a made hand is worth 3.4 big blinds
In a nutshell if you think your opponent would have a stronger range than that outlined or if they are "sticky" (float plays generally don't work on them) then it's a bad call.
Otherwise, it's a good call!
