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I am wondering in what cases it is more profitable to play with your odds (for example bet 15% of pot when you have 18% winning odds) and when its better to give your opponent bad odds to call?

Take this example: You hold a flush draw on the turn and Have winning odds of 18%. you know opponent 1 will figure his winning odds at only 20% since he also holds a flush draw. Should you now make a potsize bet to give opponent bad odds to call or should you only bet 15% of the pot and stay within your winning odds?

  • Hi and welcome! Your question isn't particularly clear, you might want to improve it by adding a practical example to help people understand and be able to provide better answers. – 3N1GM4 Dec 6 '17 at 15:24
  • i have modified it – Herrsocke Dec 6 '17 at 15:44
  • How do you know your opponent has a flush draw and can you beat it? – paparazzo Dec 7 '17 at 13:46
  • in future questions please provide information about the game you are playing (tourney, sit-and-go, live cash game, online cash game), hand history (cards on the board, betting history), and information on the opponent (does he seem to be tight/loose, HUD information if you have it). – Clarko Dec 9 '17 at 22:41
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I would say this question is less about odds, and more about bet sizing and reading. In order to answer I will point out a few things you are assuming in your question.

  • We can see both our cards and our opponents cards
  • our opponent is aware of pot odds and optimal play given those odds

If you knew that your opponent also has a flush draw, then betting over 20% of the pot is clearly the best move (especially if you will get a higher flush if another card of your suit lands on the next street). Your opponent will figure his odds not to be favorable and fold in most situations.

This, however, is usually not the case in a regular HE poker game. You must consider all of the information to make the right move. Your opponent could be holding a flush draw. If they are, will they call a big bet? Has their previous betting made their hand look weak? Are they a tight or loose player? Do they call every turn bet or usually fold? These are some of the questions you should be asking yourself to help you make a decision.

Betting < 20% is considered a value bet, which should pay off if you make your hand, and betting > 20% would be over-repping your hand hoping your opponent will fold.

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