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I ran the numbers on hand 1: A♥A♣3♠2⋄ versus hand2: 6♣7♣8♥9♥. Turns out aces have 46.82% equity. Significantly less than 50!

I chose this matchup, because hand 1 can only make two different straight, however on both straights hand 2 will end up with the better end of the straight. Hand 2's suits are the same as the aces. I don't know why but this results in higher equity for hand 2. So my side question: why do hand 2's suits to be the same as the aces cause higher equity for hand 2?

Main question: Is this the worst possible scenario pre-flop for aces? Or is there another hand which is even worse?

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    “Hand 2’s suits are the same as the aces” - yes, but the Aces can’t make a flush cos it’s Omaha and you have to use exactly two hole cards, so need two cards of the same suit to make a flush. Therefore a rainbow hand like the aces you give here can never make a flush. This is one of the reasons why your double suited rundown here has such good equity against the aces.
    – 3N1GM4
    Dec 25, 2017 at 21:05
  • @3N1GM4 I know. This is not my question. Perhaps my question is unclear to you?
    – Raymond
    Dec 25, 2017 at 21:08
  • I know it’s not your question, hence leaving a comment instead of an answer. You stated that hand 2’s suits are the same as the aces and couldn’t understand why hand 2 has more equity, so I was commenting on that.
    – 3N1GM4
    Dec 25, 2017 at 21:09
  • @3N1GM4 I see. I updated my question.
    – Raymond
    Dec 25, 2017 at 21:11
  • This question has changed a couple times. Supposed to be one question per question.
    – paparazzo
    Dec 26, 2017 at 16:09

1 Answer 1

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As to your main question, I couldn't come up with anything where hand 2 would have more than the 53.18 win % that you show. However, if you're looking at straight equity for hand 1, consider the following:

Hand 1: A♥A♣6♠T♦ versus hand2: A♠A♦J♦T♠.

This gives a win% for of 5.28 for hand 1 and 28.51 for hand 2 with a 66.21% chance of tying. If you then split the tie % between the hands, you end up with just 38.385% equity for the first hand.

For the other question about suits, I believe the following case explains why hand 2 has slightly more win equity when the suited cards are the same as the aces in hand 1. Assume that hand 2 makes a flush--what can hand 1 make that beats that flush? The answer is a full house (or 4 of a kind). If hand 2's suits are the same as hand 1's aces then we know that there are 3 cards on the board that are NOT aces so the chances of hand 1 making a full house or better are pretty low. On the other hand, if hand 2's suits aren't the same as hand 1's aces then there's the possibility that one of the cards that helps make hand 2's flush is an ace which would in turn increases hand 1's chances of making a full house (for example, giving them a redraw if it was a flopped flush).

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    Thanks. Small note: 53.18% was not win % but actual equity.
    – Raymond
    Dec 26, 2017 at 19:34
  • I am not following? If the suit is not the AA then there is still the same chance of an A on the board.
    – paparazzo
    Dec 28, 2017 at 13:19
  • @Paparazzi Take the two example hands that are given in the question. If hand 2 makes a flush because there are 3 clubs on the board, then we know for sure that 3 of the cards on the board are not an ace (because ace of clubs is in hand 1). But if you replace the Ac in hand 1 with As, then there's a possibility that one of the 3 clubs on the board is in fact an ace, giving hand 1 a little more equity.
    – Dr.DrfbagIII
    Dec 28, 2017 at 14:40

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