Say you have A♠ A♥. Regardless of the action pre-flop, let's say the flop comes A♦ T♦ 9♣ and the action is on you. On a wet board like this, you probably want to bet to protect your hand and perhaps build the pot since you have a monster. However, If you bet an amount close to the full pot or even over bet the pot, you're most likely forcing your skillful opponent to fold his potential draws since he would be making a -EV play by calling. On the other hand, if you bet an amount like 1/2 to 3/4 the pot, your opponent can still make a call with +EV. From your perceptive, that can be a good thing since you got the largest equity and you're (supposedly) willing to build a bigger pot.

Which of the two lines of thinking is more sound? Force a -EV play or a fold? or allow a +EV play while building a bigger pot when you got the edge?

P.S. For simplicity, let's say you're almost positive that your opponent has K♦Q♦


1 Answer 1


Regardless of action of action pre-flop? You should never play a flop ignoring pre-flop action. Stack size matters.

NO WAY you can put your opponent on K♦Q♦. Even if they are playing suited K then less than 1/4 of the time it is diamonds. If you are going to base your play on opponent has basically the best possible hand then you have a hole in your game. Put your player on a specific hand for simplicity has no value in poker strategy and leads to bad play.

You should be betting AA pre-flop enough to make playing KQ suited not profitable. If you are slow playing AA then fine but that will effect how to play the flop.

On the flop was it checked to you or are you first to act. It matters.

If they are on K♦Q♦ then they are 45% to make a straight or flush by the river and should call a small bet and jam to a big bet. They should jam to a small bet if they have less than 2 pots behind.

This cannot be reduced to force a -EV play or a fold given critical information that is not included. If they are really on KQ diamonds with overlay there is no -EV.

  • You, for some reason, insist on missing the point behind the question. Nevertheless, here are some more details: You're both deep. You're out of position. You raised preflop about 4~5x the blind and your opponent called. You're putting your opponent on a 33% chance to improve and beat you by the river. The concept behind the question is not that you have Aces and he has KG suited. It's rather the fact that you "believe" you have about 67% equity against your opponent on the flop. Again, for simplicity, let's assume that you have "very good reasons" to believe so.
    – yazanpro
    Feb 15, 2018 at 15:44
  • Sorry I could not be of more assistance. Then this is a poor example of 33% as AK diamonds is 45% to improve by the river here.
    – paparazzo
    Feb 15, 2018 at 16:05
  • You can plug the hand on cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem and verify that KQ of diamonds have 33.84% equity against Aces.
    – yazanpro
    Feb 15, 2018 at 16:12
  • 1
    So, that is your equity. Villain does not put you on AA and probably thinks all outs are good. I said 45% to improve. Sorry I can't help you.
    – paparazzo
    Feb 15, 2018 at 16:19
  • I feel your pain, paparazzo.
    – TonyK
    May 5, 2021 at 21:51

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