0

Say you are playing 5♥ 6♥

Flop comes up A♥ T⋄ 4♣

You have runner runner straight and flush draws. What is your chance of trips or better by the river?

This question made me curious. count outs

1

See a few mistakes in the above answer...

Correct: There are combin(47;2) = 1081 two cards combination left.

But there are only 10 hearts remaining, so only 45 flush draws possible: combin(10:2) = 45 flush draws

Correct:

7,8 = 15 (the flush combo does not count)
3,7 = 15 (the flush combo does not count)
2,3 = 15 (the flush combo does not count)

Alas,

combin(3:2) = 3 not 6
5,5 = 3
6,6 = 3

Ergo: total of 96 possible 2 card combo's that will give you trips or better.

Only 8.9% chance of getting trips or better

0

There are combin(47;2) = 1081 two cards combination left

combin(11;2) = 55 flush draws
7,8 = 15 (the flush combo does not count)
3,7 = 15
2,3 = 15
5,5 = 6
6,6 = 6

total = 112 = 10.36%

Statistically you cannot even call a small bet on the flop.

  • "Statistically you cannot even call a small bet on the flop." It depends entirely on the stacks and the implied odds. It's true for short stack situations for sure. Due to how seldom you get there it's often good instead to add fold equity by pushing pressure when one had range advantage, i.e. raising. – Jonast92 Jul 23 at 15:32
  • It's a bad draw in itself, but backdoors often add to other draws such as overcards (25% without BDFD, 29% with) or gutshots (16% eq without bdfd and 20% with), sometimes giving you that little extra that makes a call correct. For example KJhh here might be good enough to call a 1/3 bet while KJo is likely not. Using BDFD is also a great way to balance one's game by adding moderate bluffing frequencies on board that don't have any direct draws. – Arthur Havlicek Jul 25 at 15:35

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.