Was at an MTT earlier on today late on in the game, I get King Six suited, everyone has been playing tight so I decide on a 2BB raise, am in medium position. Everyone folds except one player who calls. Flop is shown and I have a flush. The player raises approx 3BB, I call. Turn card is a duce, off suit. The player now goes all in, I call, we both have fairly similar stacks, about 50k each. He wins with a higher flush, as he had an ace. I would like to ask would anyone have played this differently and also I am intruiged to know what the odds would be for a king flush to be beaten by an ace flush?
On the turn there are 46 unknown cards (to you). There is only one ace and 7 other cards of the suite. There are combin(46, 2) possible hands. So the odds are 0.00676 = 1/148.
But they are (likely) only making that move with a flush on an unpaired board. They could think a smaller flush is good. There are 21 flushes you beat but is someone going to play 27 suited. If they are only playing suited connectors over 5 then like 5 hands (depends on the board). If they think top set is good 8 hands. So you were about 50/50. I think you need to call. But getting beat in that spot is not rare.
On the flop I think you should have raised like the pot to chase off a lone ace. If they shoved you would have been in basically the same spot and I think you need to call.
Lets say no other player had any card from that suit. so total card out of that suit are 5(2 your cards + 3 on flop). Now the probability of opponent having 2 cards from that same suit is 0.026 given that there's only one opponent. But all these numbers dont really matter here.If you or your opponent or both had one card flush then its more likely he has A high flush .
But in this case as your opponent went all in at the turn and the board was not paired then its very likely he's bluffing or semi bluffing with an Ace of that suit or a set(if he's thinking you have like A or K of that suit with an unsuited second card) . He was lucky that you had a flush otherwise any weak hand will fold to that all in bet at the turn depending upon the stack sizes.This happens very rarely you played it good.
Hope this helps
P.S. Pardon my English