# Questions tagged [ev]

In probability theory, the expected value (or EV or expectation) of a random variable is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on.

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### Simplest Way to Explain EV to Beginners

I've recently been teaching a few of my friends to play poker, and I've explained various facets of poker play to them, now I want to explain Expected Value. It's not a simple concept and I don't ...
1k views

### How big an edge can you have on a tournament field ? ROI vs edge question

The situation: You are playing a deep stack tournament with 300BB starting stack. Let's suppose you have exactly 300% ROI in this field, in this specific tournament. UTG goes all-in on the first hand, ...
5k views

### How do I Calculate Expected Value of Shoving, including Fold Equity, in heads up play?

How do I calculate my expected value of shoving, including Fold Equity, in heads up play? I know several factors are involved Pot Size My Stack His Stack My chance of winning if he calls His chance ...
811 views

### What mnemonic rules are helpful in poker calculations?

Given that precise EV calculations require one to operate with rather uncomfortable numbers, approximations are used along with simplified models. For instance, the rule of 4 and 2 allows you to ...
527 views

### Can “run it twice” be a +EV in a long run?

The concept of "run it twice" is that when players go all in, the rest of the board will be dealt two times with the cards left at the deck. The pot is then by splitted into two parts; one for both "...
761 views

### How to calculate expected value if I go All-in before flop with AK offsuit

1/2\$ 6max NLHE game. I am UTG and I raised by 6\$ with AKo. Everybody folded except BB who raised by 11\$. Pot is now 20\$. Now, if I go All-in my opponet will fold everthing except AA and KK in which ...
559 views

### Expected Value for SB und BB in NL HU (GTO)

Lets consider a NL HU Match 100BB deep (no rake). Both players are playing GTO (game theoretical optimum). Lets assume in the GTO Strategy the SB open limps or open raises r times and open folds f ...
728 views

### Looking for mathematical paradoxes in Poker

I have been working on mathematical paradoxes. I am looking for paradoxical situations in Poker for a deep study. I found things, like Morton's Theorem, Implicit Collusion or "all in" strategy, could ...
3k views

### The need of calculating EV?

I need to clear something myself on EV topic. I know that EV calculation is: EV = (Percentage of hit * Pot size) + -(Percentage of not hit * Call size) I might be wrong but isn't the following a bit ...
302 views

### HU EV facing an open shove from sb with ~10bb

This is my first post, I'm looking to find out what the EV of calling this shove is. I've been reading Will Tipton's Expert HUNL book and I'm not really sure what to do when calculating the EV of ...
352 views

### Is this normal? Below EV

Is it normal if I'm running 11.500 big blinds below EV in all-in pots over 700.000 hands? What are the chances for this to occur? My standard deviation BB/100 is about 100.
448 views

### Ideal bet size based on EV

I'm trying to determine what the ideal bet size is on strong hands. I do understand the concept of EV. So I can calculate what the maximum bet size is with a positive EV. However, that would be too ...
291 views

### Why shove the river when your range is more than 50% value heavy?

From an example in Mastering Small Stakes No Limit Holdem (pg. 383): Notice that Hero [on the river] has nut hands slightly more often than bluffs. When this is the case, as long as Hero does not ...
91 views

### Struggling to get into +EV positions frequently

I'm fairly new to the game, but I understand the concept of pot odds - however frequently I'm getting into positions where I'm not getting good odds for draws. A recent example: \$0.01/\$0.02 - My ...