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Questions tagged [probability]

deals with computing probabilities for many commonly occurring events in the game of poker

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4answers
161 views

Why isn't every value player rich?

I'm a beginner, sorry if this question is absurd. If a player simply bets with probabilities in mind, and always made the correct move for every action, would s/he become rich in the long run? If ...
7
votes
2answers
160 views

Drawing Dead Preflop?

Suppose there is some situation where Player A moves all-in and ALL Players call such that all players are all-in (they have equal amounts of chips, so no side-pots). Is there a possible distribution ...
2
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1answer
92 views

Draw poker should you keep AK

5 card draw and you have AK and junk. Assume unsuited. A♠K♣T⋄8♣5♠ Should you keep AK or just the A?
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0answers
95 views

Is it harder to hit quads over quads than straight flush over straight flush?

Recently the local poker room changed their mega bad beat to require quads over quads for the mega, and the mini (10% of mega) would qualify with AAATT or better beaten including Quads losing to SF ...
2
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0answers
90 views

Poker pre-flop probability trainer

Is there a freeware, better FLOSS, online or preferably offline trainer for preflop probabilities. I imagine different play modes with entering percentages under measurement of time resulting in ...
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votes
1answer
49 views

Can I get probability of winning a HU SNG tournament out of ROI % against an opponent?

I am currently trying to evaluate my expected value in HU SNG. One part of this is using a binomial distribution to understand P to win exactly or fewer tournaments out of some amount. So, I have a ...
3
votes
2answers
165 views

Probability your opponent has a pocket pair when you are paired versus not

If I am holding a pocket pair does that effect the probability my opponent has a pocket pair.
2
votes
1answer
90 views

What are the 5 card hand probabilities

Of all the 5 card poker hands what are the probabilities? And how are probabilities derived?
1
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1answer
329 views

Odds Of Someone Having A Flush

I recently played at a rather loose table where it seemed to be acceptable practice to chase a flush no matter what amount of bets were made. Let's say you are at a 9 player table. There are 2 suited ...
2
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1answer
52 views

Probability of flush on board and no player has a flush card

What is the chance the board has a flush. And two players have no flush card.
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0answers
48 views

Probabilities for each high card hands in draw poker

What are the probabilities in draw poker of being dealt 3 cards to a flush, straight flush or royal flush 4 cards to a flush, straight flush or royal flush 3 cards to a straight 4 cards to a ...
2
votes
1answer
68 views

What are the odds of the river containing a full house?

I was watching a game in a bar the other day and the river ended up containing a full house. What are the odds of this?
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votes
1answer
112 views

Combining poker hand probabilities (Texas Hold'em)

This is the board : Board: [9d 8h 7c] My hand : [10d 7s] Opponents (unknown): [Xx Xx] Cards remaining in the deck is 45. As there is still a turn and river to come, the total combination of hands is ...
1
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1answer
3k views

Short deck probability

Short deck is remove 2-5 so 36 cards left. A6789 is a straight. What is the hand order and probability. For example a flush is harder to make but a straight is easier. Ideally post the ...
1
vote
1answer
751 views

How to calculate probability of flopping a set (with pocket pairs)?

Building a poker program and would like to make sure I have my calculation correct. If a player is holding pocket pair, how does one calculate the probability of flopping a set (one card out of the ...
2
votes
1answer
269 views

How to count the number of starting hands in Texas Hold 'em

I'm revisiting the excellent book by Tony Guerrera, Killer Poker by the Numbers. In the first chapter he goes over how to count the number of possible starting hands but leaves, as an exercise for the ...
2
votes
2answers
157 views

Quads sevens 5 times in one night

I got quad sevens five times in 3 hours . The first three times were within the same round of ten hands. Without a technical explanation what are the odds of three times in ten hands and five times ...
0
votes
1answer
560 views

How to deal with players who limp into every hand - and always see the river [duplicate]

I play poker quite regularly with friends. A smallish game usually between 5-7 players. Generally I can read the other players easily. They either play too tight so i fold early or as soon as they try ...
1
vote
2answers
155 views

Outs when needing more than one card

I recently learnt about outs, and the magic 4-2 rule. However all the examples that I see use the example of needing one card to complete your set. Why we don't consider the fact that I can have two ...
1
vote
2answers
122 views

Chances of an opponent not having a flush on 3-flush board

If there are 5 cards on the board and 3 of them are hearts and I don't have any hearts in my hand, what is the probability of someone else NOT having 2 hearts in their hand?
0
votes
1answer
283 views

Nash-like table for a full 9 players table?

I'm wondering, is there anything like the Nash Equilibrium that I can use to know when to go all in if my blinds a low in a full 9 players table?
0
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2answers
141 views

Determining probability of opponents succeeding + yourself?

To get the probability of the next card being your card that you need, you simply get all the cards that match the definition / total cards not pulled. However, at river how do you determine your ...
1
vote
1answer
109 views

Probability of (atleast) one opponent achieving a combination

calculating my own odds is pretty easy. But for me it's very challenging to calculate the opponent's odd yet. Got a very nice book which focuses at exactly this problem. The problem: It just shows the ...
1
vote
2answers
83 views

Poker hand suited connector

6 handed 1/2 cash All around 100 bb but bb at 30 Pre Hero in CO with T♠ 8♠ UTG open for 4 bb with one caller, I call, btn fold, sb fold, bb calls. I am lovin it. Flop Pot is 17 ...
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1answer
180 views

Combinations and poker probability

How to calculate poker odds using combinations?
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3answers
275 views

You have AA in the BB. The BU opens to 3.5x. What is your line?

You have AA in the BB. The BTN opens to 3.5x. What is your line ?
4
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2answers
380 views

Texas Hold'em heads up pre-flop AK vs 89s

According to online calculators: A♥K♦ (57.91%) vs 7♣8♣ (41.71%) A♥K♦ (59.42%) vs 8♣9♣ (40.19%) A♥K♦ (58.59%) vs 9♣T♣ (41.00%) Why is 8♣9♣ worse odds than the other 2? I assume it has something to ...
0
votes
2answers
218 views

Is the Nash equilibrum strategy probabilistic?

Suppose you play with a Nash equilbirum strategy in a heads up NLH match, can you play every equal situation in the same way? (Equal in the sense of the same cards on the board and in your hand and ...
0
votes
1answer
80 views

Quantify the equity of position (button) heads up

Can the value of the button be quantified heads up. Is there an optimal number of hands to play assuming the SB is going to play GTO? Or if there is an EV based solution? Can use fixed sized ...
4
votes
1answer
643 views

Starting hands head up

Does anyone have charts for starting hands heads by position up or even order of hands? I know any Ace and any pair is valuable but I cannot find more specific guidelines. I found order of hands ...
0
votes
1answer
368 views

Probability of ace on flop?

I would like to ask. If someone has an AQ and I have got AJ what's the probability of hitting an A on the flop?
0
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2answers
76 views

Probability of an over straight or strait flush

You flop 2 hole cards to the full straight or straight flush. What is the chance of an over straight or straight flush?
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2answers
310 views

What are the odds in five card draw

We play generally five card draw poker with friends at home and we play with 32 cards, not 52. Could someone show me the way of calculating my drawing odds?
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1answer
61 views

Which poker hand is this? [duplicate]

How's Ruane winning with 100%? He has no straight or full house or flush, while Hallaert has a pair.
0
votes
2answers
414 views

AA versus AA what is the chance of winning

AA versus AA the only way to win or lose is a flush What is the chance of a flush? To me a general answer on how to calculate odds is not a duplicate. I think most or many people on this site ...
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vote
1answer
74 views

Card removal and marginal hands

We know that big cards like ace and king are played more pre flop For me in late position card removal would not really change how you play AK. What about 88? Does card removal make it any more ...
3
votes
1answer
210 views

hand distribution in 6 max vs full ring

I have heard that the distribution in a 6 max game is similar to that of a 9 or 10 handed game where the extra players have folded. I am wondering how true that is. Seems like there may be a higher ...
2
votes
1answer
249 views

Distinct 7 card poker hands

From this link The number of distinct 5-card poker hands that are possible from 7 cards is 4,824. Does anyone have the break down of the 4,824? A list of the 4824? Better yet a program to ...
6
votes
3answers
3k views

Best hand versus AA

Statistically what is the best hand versus AA (other than AA) I had read 56, 67, 78 Suited not the suit of any ace 56 being the best I cannot figure how 56 is better Ran on poker stove ...
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votes
4answers
263 views

Why don't you remove the element of luck in poker?

There are many examples of players doing the right thing and losing anyways. So, why don't you just change the rules, so that the players doing the right thing receive some extra compensation? It's ...
4
votes
1answer
567 views

Versus random hands

I have written a program to rate 2 hole cards (your hand) against a single random hand. It works - I compared its results to a published list. Your two hole cards are combined with a common 5 card ...
3
votes
2answers
161 views

What's wrong with my equity calculation?

When answering this question, I went ahead and tried to do a manual equity calculation for the scenario described (7♥4♠ vs A♠8♣ on a board of 6♥2♥8♥), ...
0
votes
1answer
687 views

Probability of playing for a top PokerStars Spin & Go prize?

PokerStars now offers a $5,000 vacation package as a top prize for their $0.50 spin & go. What are my chances of getting that top prize?
2
votes
1answer
181 views

What are the odds of at least one player getting a hand from a range?

I've been trying to work this out for a while but I'm really struggling. I know the odds for a single player getting a hand from a range is simply: Combinations of hands in range / Total possible ...
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2answers
1k views

Odds that someone makes or holds a pair on the flop, based on the # of players

QUESTION: In Hold ’Em, what are the combined odds after the flop that at least one player at the table either has a pair in the hole or has flopped at least a pair, depending on the number of players? ...
0
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1answer
371 views

Calculating probabilities for 3, 4, 5 card Straight/Flush/Straight Flush

I am playing around with creating a new card game, similar to poker, and I am really struggling with figuring out the math behind calculating the probability of certain hands. Heres the overview of ...
1
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1answer
141 views

Joint, conditional, and value-dependent probabilities (in… poker)

This is a continuation of this question/answer and intentionally wanted to make it a separate topic. It is required to read that topic first before attempting to read this one. What is joint ...
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2answers
5k views

How do I calculate poker hand probabilities?

This is a tutorial for calculating poker probabilities from scratch. It is what I learned in my degree and even beforehand when I created and 5-card draw hand strength calculator. The intention of ...
0
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1answer
1k views

in this Flush vs flush who wins + pairs in the 2 hands? [duplicate]

pleaase explain who wins ? and WHY ?? THANKS ALL :)
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1answer
193 views

Got beaten three times by the same 4 of a kind, then won with a straight flush. In the span of 141 hands. What are the odds?

I hope anyone can help me, the math goes way over my head. I just had the most unlikely game. At a 9 person hold'em table, I first got beaten by three separate people, all with 5555. Then I won a hand ...