# Questions tagged [probability]

deals with computing probabilities for many commonly occurring events in the game of poker

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### How to deal with players who limp into every hand - and always see the river [duplicate]

I play poker quite regularly with friends. A smallish game usually between 5-7 players. Generally I can read the other players easily. They either play too tight so i fold early or as soon as they try ...
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1 vote
580 views

### Outs when needing more than one card

I recently learnt about outs, and the magic 4-2 rule. However all the examples that I see use the example of needing one card to complete your set. Why we don't consider the fact that I can have two ...
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1 vote
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### Chances of an opponent not having a flush on 3-flush board

If there are 5 cards on the board and 3 of them are hearts and I don't have any hearts in my hand, what is the probability of someone else NOT having 2 hearts in their hand?
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### Nash-like table for a full 9 players table?

I'm wondering, is there anything like the Nash Equilibrium that I can use to know when to go all in if my blinds a low in a full 9 players table?
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### Determining probability of opponents succeeding + yourself?

To get the probability of the next card being your card that you need, you simply get all the cards that match the definition / total cards not pulled. However, at river how do you determine your ...
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1 vote
166 views

### Probability of (atleast) one opponent achieving a combination

calculating my own odds is pretty easy. But for me it's very challenging to calculate the opponent's odd yet. Got a very nice book which focuses at exactly this problem. The problem: It just shows the ...
1 vote
96 views

### Poker hand suited connector

6 handed 1/2 cash All around 100 bb but bb at 30 Pre Hero in CO with T♠ 8♠ UTG open for 4 bb with one caller, I call, btn fold, sb fold, bb calls. I am lovin it. Flop Pot is 17 ...
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424 views

### Combinations and poker probability

How to calculate poker odds using combinations?
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### You have AA in the BB. The BU opens to 3.5x. What is your line?

You have AA in the BB. The BTN opens to 3.5x. What is your line ?
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### Texas Hold'em heads up pre-flop AK vs 89s

According to online calculators: A♥K♦ (57.91%) vs 7♣8♣ (41.71%) A♥K♦ (59.42%) vs 8♣9♣ (40.19%) A♥K♦ (58.59%) vs 9♣T♣ (41.00%) Why is 8♣9♣ worse odds than the other 2? I assume it has something to ...
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### Is the Nash equilibrum strategy probabilistic?

Suppose you play with a Nash equilbirum strategy in a heads up NLH match, can you play every equal situation in the same way? (Equal in the sense of the same cards on the board and in your hand and ...
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### Quantify the equity of position (button) heads up

Can the value of the button be quantified heads up. Is there an optimal number of hands to play assuming the SB is going to play GTO? Or if there is an EV based solution? Can use fixed sized ...
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Does anyone have charts for starting hands heads by position up or even order of hands? I know any Ace and any pair is valuable but I cannot find more specific guidelines. I found order of hands ...
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### Probability of ace on flop?

I would like to ask. If someone has an AQ and I have got AJ what's the probability of hitting an A on the flop?
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### Probability of an over straight or strait flush

You flop 2 hole cards to the full straight or straight flush. What is the chance of an over straight or straight flush?
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749 views

### What are the odds in five card draw

We play generally five card draw poker with friends at home and we play with 32 cards, not 52. Could someone show me the way of calculating my drawing odds?
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### Which poker hand is this? [duplicate]

How's Ruane winning with 100%? He has no straight or full house or flush, while Hallaert has a pair.
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### AA versus AA what is the chance of winning

AA versus AA the only way to win or lose is a flush What is the chance of a flush? To me a general answer on how to calculate odds is not a duplicate. I think most or many people on this site ...
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1 vote
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### Card removal and marginal hands

We know that big cards like ace and king are played more pre flop For me in late position card removal would not really change how you play AK. What about 88? Does card removal make it any more ...
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347 views

### hand distribution in 6 max vs full ring

I have heard that the distribution in a 6 max game is similar to that of a 9 or 10 handed game where the extra players have folded. I am wondering how true that is. Seems like there may be a higher ...
• 364
1 vote
750 views

### Distinct 7 card poker hands

From this link The number of distinct 5-card poker hands that are possible from 7 cards is 4,824. Does anyone have the break down of the 4,824? A list of the 4824? Better yet a program to ...
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### Best hand versus AA

Statistically what is the best hand versus AA (other than AA) I had read 56, 67, 78 Suited not the suit of any ace 56 being the best I cannot figure how 56 is better Ran on poker stove ...
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414 views

### Why don't you remove the element of luck in poker?

There are many examples of players doing the right thing and losing anyways. So, why don't you just change the rules, so that the players doing the right thing receive some extra compensation? It's ...
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### Versus random hands

I have written a program to rate 2 hole cards (your hand) against a single random hand. It works - I compared its results to a published list. Your two hole cards are combined with a common 5 card ...
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273 views

### What's wrong with my equity calculation?

When answering this question, I went ahead and tried to do a manual equity calculation for the scenario described (7♥4♠ vs A♠8♣ on a board of 6♥2♥8♥), ...
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### Probability of playing for a top PokerStars Spin & Go prize?

PokerStars now offers a \$5,000 vacation package as a top prize for their \$0.50 spin & go. What are my chances of getting that top prize?
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### What are the odds of at least one player getting a hand from a range?

I've been trying to work this out for a while but I'm really struggling. I know the odds for a single player getting a hand from a range is simply: Combinations of hands in range / Total possible ...
1 vote
5k views

### Odds that someone makes or holds a pair on the flop, based on the # of players

QUESTION: In Hold ’Em, what are the combined odds after the flop that at least one player at the table either has a pair in the hole or has flopped at least a pair, depending on the number of players? ...
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### Calculating probabilities for 3, 4, 5 card Straight/Flush/Straight Flush

I am playing around with creating a new card game, similar to poker, and I am really struggling with figuring out the math behind calculating the probability of certain hands. Heres the overview of ...
1 vote
254 views

### Joint, conditional, and value-dependent probabilities (in... poker)

This is a continuation of this question/answer and intentionally wanted to make it a separate topic. It is required to read that topic first before attempting to read this one. What is joint ...
9k views

### How do I calculate poker hand probabilities?

This is a tutorial for calculating poker probabilities from scratch. It is what I learned in my degree and even beforehand when I created and 5-card draw hand strength calculator. The intention of ...
5k views

### in this Flush vs flush who wins + pairs in the 2 hands? [duplicate]

pleaase explain who wins ? and WHY ?? THANKS ALL :)
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### Got beaten three times by the same 4 of a kind, then won with a straight flush. In the span of 141 hands. What are the odds?

I hope anyone can help me, the math goes way over my head. I just had the most unlikely game. At a 9 person hold'em table, I first got beaten by three separate people, all with 5555. Then I won a hand ...
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### Hold'em: Why does K♠️7♠️ beat A♠️2♠️ more frequently than K♠️8♠️ does?

According to this site: K♠️7♠️ beats A♠️2♠️ 39.10% of the time (and ties 0.62%). K♠️8♠️ beats A♠️2♠️ 38.71% of the time (and ties 0.61%). Why is this? I expected the two probabilities to be the ...
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### Poker Strategy for all ins

If an opponent goes all in pre-flop and I have 8 8 and everybody else has folded, what are the respective odds on either player winning the hand?
1 vote
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### Safe strategy? In a simplified model of poker

I was just wondering where if there's any such thing as a safe strategy. In a simplified model of Poker, each player is dealt 5 cards.Each player bets on the belief that their hand is worth more ...
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### Realistic Community Cards

I play online poker on a few sites and recently, I have marked that I'm actually getting a series of bad beats from some awful (ly "lucky") players. My question is what are the odds of following ...
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1 vote
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### Probability in poker

In his book "The poker face of Wall Street", A.Brown wrote this: "If two hands have two different cards ten or higher, there is a 62% chance they share a card of the same rank. If two hands are ...
1 vote
473 views

### On the turn pot odds to call versus outs

When facing a bet on the turn (river card to come) how to equate call a bet to number of outs? You think you are beat but you have a number of outs. When is it profitable to call?
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### Holding suited connectors odd of flopping 2 pair or better

Pre flop with suited connector what are the odds of flopping 2 pair of better? For example if I am facing a bet and a raise from big stacks and I have 78s what are my odds. I am up against an ...
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### What are the odds of a at least a certain amount of aces being dealt depending on the number of players?

I'm interested to know what the odds are of at least a certain amount of aces being dealt anywhere, depending on the amount of players. Zero Aces | At least 1 Ace | At least 2 Aces | At ...
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### Probability of forming a flush question (dependent vs independent event)

I'm slightly confused at the probability calculations for hands. Here's the problem: Suppose you have two hearts. The flop comes and has two hearts. What is the probability of forming a flush on the ...
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### How does number of player affect the probability of a hand winning a round?

So I am currently trying to develop an algorithm for a poker odds calculator to predict the probability of a hand winning during the flop, turn and river in Texas Hold'Em as a side project. After ...
1 vote
338 views

### Can You Win a Long Tournament Without Major Suckouts

As the title suggests, I'd like to know how common it is to win a long poker tournament (e.g. the main event) without performing any major suckouts. Major suckouts -per my definition- are the ones ...
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### Probability of making two pairs (Hold'em)

Based on Wikipedia article, probability of making two pairs among seven cards is 23.5%. But this include cases where the two pairs are on the board (e.x. I have AQ and the board is KKJJ5), or one of ...
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1 vote
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### Probability of two players getting identical starting hands

I've been playing hold'em on SWC lately, and have noticed that two players (across different tables with different numbers of players) get identical starting hands quite a bit. Like, more than once a ...
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### Can anyone suggest a limit holdem training app for Android?

First time poster in this part of the world, so apologies if I've posted this in the wrong area. In short; I used to play a lot of Poker in University over a decade ago, and then continued to play ...
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1 vote
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### 5 cards draw odds

I have three cards of the same suit. What are the odds of receiving two more cards of the same suit? If the number of players is important, assume 5 players on the table.
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### What is the probability of seeing a royal flush and a four of a kind in the same round with ten players?

We were wondering and concluded it is possible to have two players, one having a royal flush, the other having four of a kind, if there is a pair and three high cards on the table. But the situation ...
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