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Questions tagged [statistics]

Computational mathematics for understanding odds and other playing percentages

0
votes
1answer
15 views

How can I use poker hand histories to datamine [on hold]

I have a database of poker hand histories and am looking to use these to datamine. However I don't how to go about converting the hand histories into something I can use. I am certain this has been ...
2
votes
2answers
62 views

Number of combinations for 5 from 52 cards neglecting suit

When considering the suit of the cards, 5 from 52 cards have 2598960 different combinations. But how many different combinations are possible when neither suit nor order of the cards are considered? (...
2
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3answers
141 views

Probability of flopping two flushes

I flopped a K high flush, opponent flopped an A high flush. What are the chances of this happening? Thanks.
1
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0answers
26 views

Equilabs Equity Trainer - In head/live calcs. Ideal average difference?

I'm using Equilabs Equity Trainer at the moment, been using it for a few days to get a better understanding of equity and how it affects my decision making on the tables. In particular I go through ...
0
votes
1answer
44 views

Software to create combinations

Looking for software to create combinations. wiki
3
votes
1answer
357 views

Is there a calculator that shows what my “potential” odds are?

I always make the newbie mistake of waiting for the flush or straight. I was wondering if there is a website or an app that, after I put in the two cards in my hand, and then the cards in the flop, it ...
0
votes
1answer
339 views

Nash-like table for a full 9 players table?

I'm wondering, is there anything like the Nash Equilibrium that I can use to know when to go all in if my blinds a low in a full 9 players table?
2
votes
5answers
494 views

What mathematics should I learn to get better at Poker?

I have learnt about pot odds, but that's about it right now. I mean to get "The Mathematics of Poker" at some point but in the mean time I'm trying to figure things out myself. What other mathematics ...
0
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3answers
295 views

You have AA in the BB. The BU opens to 3.5x. What is your line?

You have AA in the BB. The BTN opens to 3.5x. What is your line ?
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2answers
348 views

Odds of losing multiple set over set hands vs hitting a royal

I just finished a terrible session. Can't really feel bad about it as it was really cold decks. But I feel like I have better odds of hitting a royal than I do of catching this much run bad ever again....
7
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3answers
3k views

Best hand versus AA

Statistically what is the best hand versus AA (other than AA) I had read 56, 67, 78 Suited not the suit of any ace 56 being the best I cannot figure how 56 is better Ran on poker stove ...
2
votes
2answers
145 views

Playing mid suited connectors from BB

You are the BB and facing 2.5 BB open and one call. SB folded. You have 78s. Do you play the hand and how. Everyone has 30 BB. Assume competent pretty much down the middle players. They can be ...
4
votes
1answer
648 views

Versus random hands

I have written a program to rate 2 hole cards (your hand) against a single random hand. It works - I compared its results to a published list. Your two hole cards are combined with a common 5 card ...
3
votes
2answers
172 views

What's wrong with my equity calculation?

When answering this question, I went ahead and tried to do a manual equity calculation for the scenario described (7♥4♠ vs A♠8♣ on a board of 6♥2♥8♥), ...
2
votes
0answers
74 views

What s the bb/100 from BigBlind from a NL25 online reg? [closed]

I m watching my bb/100 NLHE stats sorted by position at the moment . The bb/100 is positiv from every Position , only BigBlind is -22.7bb/100. I think it s normal that I have a negative bb/100 from ...
1
vote
2answers
2k views

Odds that someone makes or holds a pair on the flop, based on the # of players

QUESTION: In Hold ’Em, what are the combined odds after the flop that at least one player at the table either has a pair in the hole or has flopped at least a pair, depending on the number of players? ...
1
vote
1answer
115 views

How do you express the statistics of turn/river possibilities to make a hand?

This is more of a "understanding statistics" question than a poker question. Faced with a question of, for example, "What are the odds of making a diamond royal flush by the river", the answer must ...
-1
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2answers
214 views

Building specific situational calcualtion of pot equity and chance of winning. Setting up the formula.

I'm UTG Pre-flop with two opponents, both all in, one is RICHIDIOT (3-6s) in the big blind, and the other PLAYER2 (UTG+2), probably has a made hand (10-10) and goes all in, triggering RICHIDIOT to ...
1
vote
2answers
1k views

What's the Probability of hitting the board on the Turn or the River

I've been looking for the answer to this for a while. I have my lovely Ace-King and I missed the flop. The flop is 9 5 2 rainbow. For several reasons, I put my opponent for a top pair (9 - kicker) or ...
2
votes
1answer
227 views

PFR (preflop raise) statistics calculation with raise + 4bet in one single hand

Say you have played only 3 hands. 1 of them was when you were SB 1 of them was when you were BB 1 of them was when you were at Button You folded when you were SB and BB. It was only when you were ...
3
votes
3answers
2k views

Is there statistically any combination worse than 2 7 offsuit for preflop Texas Hold'em?

The question basically says it all. I've always heard/played 2 7 offsuit as it was the worst hand, but I never looked more into it, it just made sense. Does anyone know if there is any hand worse for ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

C Net Adjusted, What does it mean? Should it be low or high?

I am still pretty fuzzy on this concept of C Net Adjusted. The answers I read are vague and I'm just looking for a simple answer. If C Net Adjusted is lower than C Net Won (Actual), am I doing ...
3
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7answers
242 views

Can a decision be both + and - EV?

Is there ever a situation that in a short-term a certain decision might be + or - EV but in the long-term the EV actually change?
2
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2answers
688 views

Are there statistics that show the percentage of times you should fold at each stage of Texas Hold'em?

More specifically, the percentage of times over many hands that the most successful players fold pre-flop,and after the flop, turn and river. Thanks!
3
votes
2answers
2k views

Probability Of Getting A Straight Flush Or Royal Flush When Holding QJs

Given that you are dealt the J♥ and Q♥, what is the probability that you will eventually make a straight flush or royal flush? Having these cards in your hand means that: 1). the only ...
4
votes
1answer
433 views

Missing the flop with AK

What are the chances of missing the flop 22 straight hands with AK? I mean when you don't flop at least one pair, two pair, straight, or a flush. I've read the chances of flopping a pair or better is ...
4
votes
2answers
309 views

How precise is math in the heat of battle?

In the heat of a hand I have never really thought in the kind of precision that is used in this post to answer a question about playing on the bubble. Indeed I have seen other players doing so in ...
7
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4answers
1k views

Probability of x pocket pairs at a table of n people (NLHE)?

With n people at a table, what is the probability that x of them are dealt pocket pairs? There are several easy ways to approximate this but I was wondering there was an elegant solution. Any takers?
5
votes
1answer
112 views

Calculating the Probability of Reaching a Certain Amount of BB vs Hero

I'm looking for help to build a statistic in excel or just mathematically. What I want to figure is the chance of another player (villain) increase his stack with X BBs when I estimate his BB/100 to ...
3
votes
1answer
204 views

What's the chance of a better hand behind me?

in a very casual round of poker, I'm trying to teach the others a few fundamentals about poker. I often try to back things up with some numbers, but some are too hard for me to get. On the issue of ...
6
votes
2answers
745 views

TAG vs LAG stats in HU

What are the typical stats for VPIP, PFR, 3bet etc. of a good TAG and a LAG in NL high-stakes heads up poker?
2
votes
3answers
549 views

Is stats or technical knowledge of poker of any help

I find it quite annoying that I am not able to surpass my 50m mark(on zynga poker )with a much better knowledge of poker since I had earlier crossed it...it is basically the perception of the other ...
4
votes
2answers
514 views

Hold'em hand history with hero

I'm looking for a significant number of hold'em hands with hero as I'm doing some specific statistical analyses and having hole cards only when they are shown at showdown creates some significant bias ...
4
votes
2answers
462 views

Chances of 5 way chop (flush board)

What is the exact probability that 5 players at a table will be dealt no clubs (or hearts or whatever) ? Happened to me when all 5 community were all clubs (2,3,5,K,9), thereby a 5 way chop.
9
votes
4answers
2k views

Finding leaks in your game

Having a sufficient number of hands recorder in your HUD, how am I supposed to find leaks in my game? What are the questions I have to answer in order to check my game? Which are the values of ...
3
votes
2answers
134 views

Quantifying the amount of skill required to win a tournament

I was thinking about this topic: Quantifying the amount of luck required to win a tournament And I wondered if there is a way to quantify the relation between skill and final place. It's seems hard ...
8
votes
3answers
5k views

Quantifying the amount of luck required to win a tournament

If we disregard deals, players accidentally mucking winning hands, and time-limited tournaments, in order to win a poker tournament, you must win the very last hand of the tournament. In order to win ...
8
votes
6answers
4k views

Do two or more players colluding against honest players gain on average more money, or not?

Let's say there are two or more players that collude with each other while playing online poker against honest players. They have an obvious advantage of knowing of more cards that are in the play ...
7
votes
1answer
2k views

What is top N% of hands in PokerStove?

In PokerStove FAQ; The slider interface for setting the top N% of hands orders the hands according to their preflop all-in equity versus three random hands. This rather arbitrary selection was ...
16
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5answers
18k views

Publicly available poker stats

Are there any sources of poker hands, including how they play out with betting etc... I am imagining the log files of some poker site somewhere. I am looking for complete hand histories - and ...
7
votes
3answers
2k views

Texas Hold'em: Heads up pre-flop probabilities

Has anyone calculated the probabilities of winning/losing heads up matchups of all combinations of two players preflop hands in Texas Hold'em, and if so, can they provide a reference? I could write ...
9
votes
1answer
582 views

Online play analysis software

What software would you recommend for analyzing one's game? I'm talking detailed number-crunching after the session, not online databases like sharkscope or in-game odds calculators (meh). Is there ...
5
votes
2answers
734 views

Minimum number of hands required to establish a conclusion about win-rate?

What is minimum number of hands required to establish a conclusion about win-rate at particular level (10NLHE, 30NLHE, etc)? e.g. You can play 1000 hands and have a win-rate of 53bb/100 but that is ...
5
votes
6answers
235 views

How to learn a new poker game?

I wanted to know what are the steps you take in order to learn a new game. I am not talking about the basic rules; more on the strategies and statistics of the game. I always start playing the "play ...
9
votes
3answers
4k views

Optimal Win Rate Standard Deviation

I've been tracking my live sessions for some time now. After 35 sessions (about four hours a session) my win rate is 34.42 an hour. My win rate standard deviation is 157.67. This seems high to me. ...
1
vote
4answers
4k views

Over the long term, how often will AA lose a hand? [closed]

On average, how often would a pair of aces win a hand? I dealt at a fairly large hold-em tournament last weekend, and 4 of 5 times AA was shown the hand lost. The one time it won it was because a ...
7
votes
4answers
1k views

How does a wild card (53rd) affect the odds of making the standard poker hands?

By standard poker hands I mean: high card one pair two pair three of a kind straight flush full house four of a kind straight flush EDIT: five of a kind I'm curious if the ranking of hands should ...