On the contrary of the answer above, the answer is yes, is the right move. Calling 36000 to win 87000 means that you have must have at least 29% if equity. The hands that has this equity against AK are
22+, A2s+, KTs+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s
AKo, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+
even taking in to ...
Yes, you can and you should. The concept you're describing is called implied odds (the estimated profit you'll make if you make your hand).
Notice is a much less concrete value as it is an estimation of whether your opponent will call when the draw comes and the amount he'll be willing to pay. There's also the concept of reverse implied odds which are the ...
Player 1 is facing a bet of $11 into an existing pot of $178+$11 = $189, so is getting pot odds of 189/11 = 17.18 (so just over 17-1).
To make a call profitable, they therefore need to have the winning hand at least 1/17.18 = 0.058 (5.8%) of the time.
I look forward to finding out where my math is wrong. :)
So just to offer you a small bit of clarity on outs, you absolutely do not have a 35% chance of winning the hand! You have a 35% chance of improving your hand. This is an important distinction to remember because;
You may already be ahead and thus don't need to improve, so the reality of this is you have any card that doesn't make your opponent get ahead of ...
Here is another way to look at it:
Gained if you call and win: 30+50 = 80
Lost if you call and lose: 50
Your Equity = 0.36
EV = Equity(Gained when win) + (1-Equity)(Lost when lose)
EV = 0.36(80) + (1-.36)(50)
EV = 28.8 + -32
EV = -3.2
Plug in 0.38 for your equity and you will see that its indeed near a break-even call.
How did they get that formula?
In the big scheme of things at the poker table there are upsides and downsides to math, as well as with intuitive play. For the sack of clarity, generally speaking intuitive play is doing what you feel is right, and mathematical play is what you figure out is right based on a range of factors. Neither is a strategy, they are how you approach the game.
Your "paradox" arises from the fact that aside from your bet, the pot contains enough expected value already for each player that neither could improve their expected ending stack by folding. With too small of a stack, you can't bet enough so that the opponent loses money. However, with your bet you can still reduce the expected overall gain from his point ...
Definitely yes, its worth it.
For example: you play MTTs, in the middle of tournament, and you've got a decent stack of chips (not short stacked). Blinds are going high, and a lot of short stacked players will start going all in. And that's where poker math comes into play. Its the best time to increase your stack by doing some calls, if odds / pot odds are ...
The article is correct in the way it uses 4:1 and 5:1. Under their assumptions (actual value given their example is more like 4.2:1), you are "4 to 1" to make it while you are getting "5 to 1" on your money. I'd say that this is precisely because both are written / pronounced / thought of this way that it's convenient.
If you check the Wikipedia article on ...
That depends on what you're contemplating, and what you think future action will be. For example, if you're contemplating a bet that will put you or your opponent all in, then the odds of the next two cards are what matters, because you're buying the right to see both of them. But if you're contemplating calling for a draw, and you both have stacks, well ...
This depends on number of things you have to consider, not only the direct odds.
What I mean:
The pure odds you calculate should be used if you expect your opponent to check the turn and you see free river.
Always calculate implied odds! People usually bet on turn and river!
If you expect your opponent to bet on the turn, you have to calculate this too - ...
We need a bit more information. Starting stacks, bets pre-flop etc. From what it sounds like so far you should have pushed all in pre-flop or after the flop.
One thing I disagree with however is when you said that in the long run you would lose money to a flush draw. If you are positive you have him beat and the only thing that will save him is if he ...
Of course it's worth it. Playing profitable poker comes down to two fundamental principles:
Identify your opponent's strategy.
Compute, and implement, the best response.
You're falling prey to a common misconception about poker. Too many players try to justify only focusing on principle #1 because it's far easier and more intuitive than putting in hard ...
Is this an accurate pot odds calculation?
$60 (Hero) + $60 (Villian) + $10 (Small Blind) = $130
$140 (Flop Bet x2) + $130 (Preflop Pot) = $270
$140 (Hero Bet) + $340 (Villian Reraise) + $270 (Flop Pot) = $750
Yep, looks good to me. Your math is correct, although I got $750 instead of $760. This results in odds slightly ...
So in this case let's first count our outs.
We have 8 cards that can make us our open ended straight draw, we also have another 7 cards that will make us our flush. So a total of 15. We know of our two cards plus the 3 flop cards, so we know there are 47 cards left in the deck.
So how do we work out the odds here? So we have 15 cards that make us win left ...
First pot, you have 19.14% equity and 18.78% to win. Second pot, with card removal you have 13.5% equity and 13.09% to win. To calculate your odds to win both, simply multiply both numbers:
.1878 * .1309 = 0.02458
So odds are 2.46% or 1 : 41.
Usually runner-runner probability is so low that it won't affect the consideration of pot odds. Thus, in most cases, realistically, you calculate the direct odds. The only exception would be runner-runner flushes OR runner-runner straights (flop-->river), where the possibility is slightly less than 4% for each one, i.e. you can consider it as an extra out, ...
I decided to have a go at answering this myself. The situation is you against one other player who has a made hand, and you have N outs.
Before the turn, the 1-step EV (ignoring any bets on the river) is
EV1 = N/47 * X + (47-N)/47 * (-10)
The two-step EV, taking river bets into account, is
EV2 = N/47 * X + (47-N)/47 * [ N/46 * (X + 20) + (46-N)/46 * (...
Knowing poker math has helped me bet (and win) the occasional hand by understanding pot odds. That made it "worth it" for me. More to the point, it's worth it for someone who plays "occasionally" or more.
I am confused in when do we use the word odds vs outs
Outs only refer to how many cards can come down on later streets which will improve a hand's absolute strength.
Odds refer to how likely it is an event will occur. In poker, we are frequently calculating pot odds, which tells us, if we call a bet, how often we need to win the hand for the call to be at ...
You are calculating pot odds a very unusual way. Your formula is mostly correct (but only works some of the time), and I'll get back to that in a moment, but typically you would just use two variables: costToCall and sizeOfPot. Pot odds don't depend on the number of players to have called the bet. One player putting 400 in is the same as four players each ...
When you are short stacked you unfortunately don't have the chips to force a bad decision.
Accept the opponent is not going to fold. 1/4 pot bet is not going to get them off a flush draw.
If you are short stacked then you need to look at it as you are getting 4:1 and you are not going to get a better chance to get your money in.
If you held back and ...
It depends on how deep the stacks are and how many players are involved in the pot. To make this easier lets suppose you have 72o, since it is the bottom of your pre-flop range.
If you have to call an all-in in a heads-up pot with 72o you are never really more than a 11% dog. Calling while getting around 8 : 1 can NEVER be bad. If your opponent is shoving ...
This question seems difficult but when you start knowing what it means, things become easier.
When you say pot odds are 3:1 to call it means that in this situation you only need to win 1 time out of 4. Let's put on example, this pot odds occur when villain bets half pot:
Let's say on the river pot is 2€ and villain bets 1€. When you lose on showdown, you ...
Did you hold the ace of spades? What bet sizing?
You have AA and your thought is to wait for the river to value bet?
Not a spot to slow play with a flush draw and two paint on the board. He could have a pair and improve to 2 pair or trips.
Slow play only when you have a monster like a set of kings. Here you should not slow play because of the flush ...
It's a common misunderstanding. You can do it both ways, it's up to what's more convenient to you.
European Way (include the amount you bet)
equity (%) = your_money/(pot+your_money) = 50 / 130 = 38%
American Way (not include your bet)
equity (us) = your_money/pot = 50 / 80 = 5:8
==> meaning you will win 5 times and lose 8 = 38% (European)
Preflop play is OK but I'd probably prefer to limp (there are already two previous limpers, which give you awesome pot odds)
I don't like betting 20 in-position on the flop because you are basically giving your out-of-position opponents a chance to attack back (someone slow-playing trips that was giving you a free-card for example). When we make this types ...
More than 9 times out of 10 you should be folding.
Off of the top of my head (correct me if I am wrong) you need 10:1 or better to make calling preflop with a small pocket pair profitable for set mining (including implied odds on later streets I believe).
If you don't hit the flop the general rule would be to fold to any bet, but there are some exceptions.
"Pot committed" happened on the prior bet. On the turn if you call off or bet out 1/3 of your stack then you are pot committed. On the turn (or flop if no turn bet) should have pushed or folded. If the prior bet was $6 or more then you were pot committed. For sure pot committed if the prior bet was $11 or more. You got where you are you are 17:1. Call ...