8
votes
Accepted
Can a decision be both + and - EV?
My interpretation is that mathematically, the expectation in EV is taken across the probability distribution of poker cards that are yet to be dealt in a particular hand as well as the randomness in ...
- 488
7
votes
Best hand versus AA
I exhaustively simulated (every possibility is run) AA vs any pocket pair and AA vs any suited connector. Firstly let's cover the pocket pairs:
Obviously it is best for the under-pair to have ...
- 2,804
6
votes
Probability Of Getting A Straight Flush Or Royal Flush When Holding QJs
There are five board cards in hold'em. Since you start with two known cards, there are 50 unknown. That means there are 50x49x48x47x46 ways the board can come. Since the order of the cards on the ...
- 3,962
5
votes
What's the Probability of hitting the board on the Turn or the River
When facing an "at least one of" problem, you can't just add probabilities. You have to calculate the probability of missing everything, then subtract from one.
Assuming 47 unknown cards, 6 of which ...
- 3,962
5
votes
Accepted
Is there a calculator that shows what my "potential" odds are?
If you have an android phone you can download "Poker calculator", logo is a clover as you can see topleft.
It is a great app. It supports hold 'em but also 4 and 5 card omaha high and omaha high/low....
- 2,804
4
votes
Accepted
What's wrong with my equity calculation?
At first, I thought, OK, lets quickly answer this, returning the favor. But it turned out to be a rather tricky one! One online calculator gives 48.18%, the other 48.28%, off by 0.1%, already very ...
- 56
4
votes
Accepted
What's the Probability of hitting the board on the Turn or the River
Sometimes during play you want a quicker method that isn't 100% but gives you very close percentages.
The rule of 2 and 4.
If you have 2 cards left to reveal (ie the turn & river) then you ...
- 585
3
votes
Is there statistically any combination worse than 2 7 offsuit for preflop Texas Hold'em?
It depends on how many players are in the pot. Using the pre-flop calculator and assuming you only know your own hand, here is a table of the winning odds (calculated at https://www.888poker.com/poker/...
- 131
3
votes
Is there statistically any combination worse than 2 7 offsuit for preflop Texas Hold'em?
I once spent an afternoon analyzing 7-2 with Poker Probe (An old program by Mike Caro). I was curious if there was any situation that justified making a call with 2-7. PP was a pretty simple program, ...
Jon♦
- 5,656
3
votes
PFR (preflop raise) statistics calculation with raise + 4bet in one single hand
Your VP would still be 33% as you could have raised/called when you were in SB and BB - the tracker will only exclude walks where action was folded round to your BB.
As for the PFR, this generally ...
- 518
3
votes
Are there statistics that show the percentage of times you should fold at each stage of Texas Hold'em?
This is likely to be very situation dependent.
There is however, a section in the PokerTracker tool that analyses the range of common actions that players have taken, (eg. Cbet flop, fold to flop ...
- 6,493
3
votes
You have AA in the BB. The BU opens to 3.5x. What is your line?
The standard line would be to re-raise to what ever your defend re-raise is.
Depending on how often the BU raises you should be defending with a re-raise a decent range. If you defend with 88+ and ...
- 6,878
3
votes
Accepted
Number of combinations for 5 from 52 cards neglecting suit
quads:
13 * 12 = 156
full houses:
13 * 12 = 156
trips:
13 * 12 * 11 / 2 = 858
two pairs:
13 * 12 * 11 / 2 = 858
single pair:
13 * 12 * 11 * 10 / 6 = 2860
5 different cards:
13 * 12 * 11 * 10 * 9 /...
- 354
2
votes
Can a decision be both + and - EV?
No, the EV is the EV. But probability is a function of knowledge. Your estimate of the likelihood of the various events that go into your calculation of EV will change over time with new information, ...
- 3,962
2
votes
Can a decision be both + and - EV?
In this case "short term" implies that you may have specific situational context that might be relevant to this narrow class of decisions. Say you're in a NLHE game and you have aces pre-flop and you ...
- 3,898
2
votes
What's wrong with my equity calculation?
I'm not sure how much it affects your equity calculation, but you are missing where the villain hits Aces full.
- 1,313
2
votes
Odds that someone makes or holds a pair on the flop, based on the # of players
If we assume that any player seeing the flop is equally likely to have any possible hand and that we do not take our own specific hand into account, we can provide an answer.
Taking the simple case ...
- 1,564
2
votes
Best hand versus AA
According to this odds calculator site, the reason 56s is better, is because it loses less against AA.
Here are the top 10 hands they list vs. AA:
Best Hands Against Pocket Aces in Holdem
Rank ...
- 1,313
2
votes
Accepted
Versus random hands
I expect most calculators online just run a subset of all possible boards as a representative sample - for example on ProPokerTools if you run a heads up hand against a random hand you get an ...
- 1,564
2
votes
What mathematics should I learn to get better at Poker?
I think that learning about weighted probabilities is very useful to improving your game, especially when reviewing hands and developing an intuition for your true chances of creating a profitable ...
- 1,948
2
votes
Probability of flopping two flushes
there is a about a 25% chance that you get dealt suited cards. (12/51 ~ 23.5% to be exact)
given that you already hold 2 suited cards, there is a 4.4% chance that your opponent also get dealt 2 cards ...
- 3,247
2
votes
Accepted
Poker tips backed by facts
These quick tips are all backed by the fundamental math and rules of poker. I would recommend that instead of memorizing facts/tips, it would be more beneficial to gain a thorough understanding of ...
- 3,247
2
votes
How to calculate my sample size to establish my real-WR?
The problem I see here is that if you are starting to become a professional player, your skills should be improving, thus I think you should track your performance based on shorter period of time, say ...
- 92
1
vote
Best hand versus AA
Not a complete answer
Yes 56 has more ties and less wins compared to 67
Why there are enough ties to overcome the wins is not so clear
win +
loss win tie tie/...
- 6,878
1
vote
Accepted
Playing mid suited connectors from BB
Everybody is short stacked here which definitely affects how you have to play, if you have >50 BB, I'd say definitely call, at the very least because having the image of being a blind defender is ...
- 541
1
vote
Playing mid suited connectors from BB
Not going to accept my own answer so feel free to post.
You are out of position but you are closing betting. If betting was still open no way I call.
You are looking to flop 2 pair or better. ...
- 6,878
1
vote
Odds that someone makes or holds a pair on the flop, based on the # of players
Let's just call it 1/3 chance that a player makes a pair on the flop. Change it into an and so you can multiply. The chance of not having a pair is 2/3. So if three saw the flop 1 - (2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3) =...
- 6,878
1
vote
How do you express the statistics of turn/river possibilities to make a hand?
It is in this link
Poker_probability
c(4,1) * c(5,5) * c(47,2) / c(52,7) = 0.0000323206 = 30939 : 1
4 flushes * exactly 5 cards * 47 remaining cards for the other 2
c is combination
It is ...
- 6,878
1
vote
Building specific situational calcualtion of pot equity and chance of winning. Setting up the formula.
There are far too many situations you'd need to work out to calculate by hand.
1a. Just for AQo vs P1 & P2 range, the permutations of hand matchups is already huge.
P1 range: 40% x 1326 = ...
- 51
Only top scored, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible