NL400: Vs a TAG Regular. Interesting River Decision

Question

Opponent is a standard TAG regular, nothing unusual. No specific reads. 22/16/2.5 (VPIP/PFR/AF) over ~300 hands.

$4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: $155
BB: $361
UTG: $190
MP: $444
Hero (CO): $415
BTN: $446

Pre Flop: Hero on CO has A♠ 5♠
2 folds, Hero raises to $16, BTN calls $16, 2 folds

Flop: ($38, 2 players) A⋄ T♣ 2♥
Hero bets $29, BTN calls $29

Turn: ($96, 2 players) 6⋄
Hero bets $70, BTN calls $70

River: ($236) Q♥
Hero?

Answer 1

If we bet here, we are doing it as a bluff. Worse hands will fold. With that in mind, what better hands can we fold out with a bet? Perhaps some Ax, but not necessarily. Therefore, we should check.

Now, how about if he bets? Since we have no reads, I will assume he is playing straight-forward and will never double float us. What hands will bluff? There are no missed draws in his range, and worse hands that have gotten this far will be seeking a show-down. Therefore, we can conclude that he is only betting with better on the river.

In short, I would check/fold this river.

Answer 2

With no draws on the board except gutshots, you're probably not going to be ahead here. He will likely call the river since he called the turn (if he had you beat), so betting is probably not a great move. I would check and fold to a reasonable bet.

Answer 3

Checkfolding here is amazingly bad, why do you even bet the turn if you are going to fold to a river that changed nothing?

Put in a blocking bet.

Answer 4

With only a few bluffs and many, many value combinations in villains range, check-folding is usually the best choice.

Given that there aren't any trips or flushes available, nor many draws prior to the river, the opponents range is heavily weighted towards value hands. AJ, slowplayed sets like 22, TT, or a semi-float with 66 that came good at the turn are possible. That's very dependant on gameflow, and our image. If we bet here and get raised we are almost certainly beat assuming our actions haven't been too aggressive or bluff heavy.

K⋄Q⋄ and K⋄J⋄ are possible but unlikely. K⋄Q⋄ wants to showdown and we lose to the K⋄J⋄ straight anyway. Q⋄J⋄ and Tx want to showdown more than they want to bluff.

If we do happen to have 2-Pair or better at this point, if your opponent is capable turning weak made hands into bluffs (e.g. He has pairs) or gutshots/turned flush draws that missed, sometimes check-raising is a good option to create even greater +EV situations in the future, and deter your opponent from bluffing at too many rivers.

Answer 5

Pre
AA, TT, AKs should have re-raised pre. 4 BB is kind of expensive.

Flop
Bet 2/3 the pot. On that flop villain could call with a pair of tens or a bigger ace. Possible even smooth call AT, A6. Why bet 2/3 the pot? An inside strait draw would fold to 1/2 pot. A ten might fold. You are probably only going to get called by better hands. You have no draws. You likely have no outs if you are behind. I think 1/2 pot would be better sizing.

Turn
When the flop called you are probably behind. That is another big bet (3/4 pot). Are you trying to rep AT and get like AK, AQ, AJ to fold out? If you are going to fire here then you need to fire the river.

If you are ahead of like a JT you are not going to get 3 streets of value in. I think a check is a better play here. If he checks back then you are probably ahead. You can value bet the river.

River
KJ would not call the flop and turn. Now you are behind QT. But you have been representing a hand as strong as AT. You were already behind AQ.

I get check fold here as you are probably beat and you are not likely to get fold from a better hand. But you knew at the flop.

If you did not intend to barrel the river then I think you should have checked the turn.

Overall
There was only $35 in the pot on the flop. Not a good spot to take an expensive line with a weak ace, no draws, and out of position.