I decided to run some numbers to confirm if this is a bad call.
I did a simulation of around 500k hands, having the following as input:
- 3 players
- Pot size after villain pot-sized bet: +/- $ 2250
- Villain bet: $ 1000
- Board: J♠ T♥ 7⋄ 3♣ A♣
- Hero hand: A⋄ K♥
- Villain hands: random
The result:
- Card-odds: 76% (easily found by pokerstove as well)
- EV: + $1470
Based plainly on EV a call here is mathematically correct.
But you have to take into account some things:
Your hand is a bit weak for such big pot. Regardless it's a TPTK, you're on the last street against 2 players with a hand you made just now and caution is needed eg. a small pot is required.
Villain act very aggressing in River after goofing around in all streets. This signifies a trap! This is overused in play money. More often than not you'll end up against hands you'll laugh at, although winning ones and that's matters.
Your EV is big, but is not a monstrous EV; It's a bit bigger than call amount and way smaller than pot-size after the Villain raised. With this hand, i'm pretty inclined to fold here rather trying to win with a hand i made on river.
Villain is hardly holding a random hand used on above calculations; he certainly have something, that changes the EV anyway in worst.
Conclusion: With hands like AKo
, you need to act very aggressively on earlier streets to:
reduce the field into 1 or 2 at most opponents
You have to raise much bigger than normal, a x10 bb
may be the standard in a given play money table to kick out the usual limpers.
If you don't succeed in this, then always remind that an A
on flop will keep any player with say a A♥ 3♠ in the hand, no matter how much you bet. Calling stations is all about play money. AKo
is a good hand against good players that can fold a dominated ace, not against a bunch of stations.