Should I have shoved all in on this flop?

Question

This happened in a $1/$2 NL game. The player on the button raised to $6. 3 others call, including me with 3♥5♥. The flop is K35 (different suits). Everyone checks to the button who bets $15. One player in early position calls. I have $48 and go all in. Button folds but other guy calls. I lose it on the river as he had 24 and gets his 6 on river. I think I had 80% chance to win after flop. Could I have done anything different?

Answer 1

Not really, I'd have played it exactly the same, especially given this is a multi-way pot, you want to isolate here against baby aces and small pairs hitting a set on subsequent streets. A King is well within any of the other players' ranges too.

It's the right play.

Answer 2

You got your money in with the best hand. And he was not getting pot odds to call. Even if you knew what was in his hand you make the right play.

At the flop you were 68%. Even if he filled up the straight you still had 4 outs yourself for a full house.

On that board you had a very good hand. I would not have put a player on 24. And I doubt they put you on 35. I would have been more concerned about getting beat by a pair of kings but you bet enough that a pair of kings also was not getting pots odds.

Answer 3

I do not know if the callers are big/small blind, so I am going to be pessimistic and say the pot is 4*6= 24$ after the flop. On the flop, before you shove the pot is 24+15+15=52$.

You shove with 48$, hence he has to call with 33$ the pot odds are 33/100 or 33%. He has 8 outs, hence the probability of hitting is aproximatley 8*4= 32%, or more precise 30% (exact probability calculation is a different subject).

30% is a little lower than 33% pot odds, hence, you opponent made a mistake and on the long run mistakes made are going to be profitable for you. Also, as noted by Chris, the pot odds will probably be slightly worse because of rake.

This run of cards was bad luck, but your play is mathematically good in the long run.

Answer 4

Everyone check to the button, no one is showing strength. Someone wants a free/cheap draw

The button's job is to show strength, he might have anything, even after raising pre-flop. You know he has something, probably a suited-connected hand or a small pair, it's unlikely that he has a high pair in this action, although it's always possible. We later come down to the conclusion that he truly did not have anything.

A player calls instead of raising, he's probably drawing and the button is probably drawing for something as-well, -- you must raise in order to make them pay for their draws. You raised the maximum and normally you would have won the pot right there but you got a call, from a connected hand which is what you want, you just happened to be unlucky here.

You should make the same move again in the same circumstances and more often than not you'll win. You can always debate whether he should have called or not but you want him to call there with those outs, you're highly favorite.

Answer 5

Should you have shoved, yes I think so. To answer your other question on could you have done anything differently, yes you could.

1. Fold the hand pre. I know this hand can do well with a nice flop and it is a cash game, but with your stack I don't think you should be calling 6$ from your 54$ stack with 3♥5♥. Maybe you're a looser player and just want to have some fun, that's fine but you didn't need to play the hand. You never mentioned your position directly, but said someone was in an earlier position from you so I am assuming you limped or are the BB.

2. You could have also donk bet it after flopping so big, your hand is disguised well, so even if someone shoves you don't mind calling, if they call you see the turn and can reevaluate, or they fold and you win a 24$ pot. You're playing 3♥5♥ for this type of board.

3. You could even have open shoved. Increasing your stacking by 50% is not to be sniffed at, happily steal that and maybe not show down. Maybe not the best move in some games but this one really depends on the players at the table. If they love calling with top pair why not just push it in? It's hard to bet fold here with your stack. After you bet and if it's called you don't really have a meaningful shove left against a big stack. This point is very dependent on the players at the table though.

In the end you got unlucky that they hit the open ended draw, but you could have done a few things differently. Whether point 2 would have changed the result is something we will never know. Once you see that flop with that hand and the way you played it yes your money is going in.

Answer 6

You shouldn't have played it so aggressively. Someone with even a King is likely to call you if they are the only person left to act. At that point, having such low pairs, there a lot of different ways you can lose over the course of the next two cards. They could make a higher two pair. The board could pair, counterfeiting your two pair. Or like what really happened, someone has a bizarre draw like that they are chasing.

In this kind of situation, playing this hand and playing it so aggressively, you are opening yourself to being called by people with strange, dangerous hands, or weak, still live hands like a higher pair. You are not going to get a call from someone who has a decent hand which cannot beat you.

The problem was with calling the $6 raise in the first place. You get what is for you, a fantastic flop, and now are stuck in an awkward place, having to be that aggressive, essentially trying to steal what is already in the pot. This hand is too vulnerable in general, especially too vulnerable to be playing for your entire stack.