I am a rather new player, and I could very well be wrong, so if you see a mistake, feel free to point it out.
With that out of the way, here is how I analyze this hand:
TL/DR: 3 good options:
- Fold and leave the table (best!);
- Fold and avoid that player until someone else busts him and he slows down;
- Re-raise to make sure you get good pot odds on your shove, then fold if he shoves and you think it's not a bluff.
Now for the reasoning:
Hindsight is always 20/20, but you could only go based on the data you had at the table.
Your assessment was that the villain was raising aggressively with a "very wide range". If your assessment was wrong, it's on you, but if you don't go based on your observations, whose observations can you rely on?
Let's say that "very wide range" translates to 28 VPIP or worse. Preflop, your "JJ" had 67.5% equity against that range. Postflop, that equity rose to 70%.
Calling that big of a raise, you weren't going to fold your cards on a dry board, so you were headed for that shove right from the start, and the flop didn't change that.
The EV on the shove was questionable: Let's say you play this same hand 100 times. There was $99 in the pot (Blinds: 4, your raise: 10, his raise: 85)
You win the pot 70%: $99 x 70 = $6,930 (you shove and villain folds
his bluff)
You lose the pot 30%: $225 x 30 = $6,750 (you shove and
villain has the goods)
Net EV: +$180 (+0.8%)
The shove is not a good move at that point (opportunity cost is too high for expected EV). However, folding your JJ means you lose the $10 you already committed to the pot and tell the villain that you will roll over anytime.
If you don't call him down with the 4th best hand in poker, what do you call him down with? You will have something better than JJ only once every 70 hands, so you can easily go bust waiting to get QQ+, and here he had AAs, so you'd really have needed to wait 220 hands on average for something that could match his bullets, and when you finally get AA, he would probably not even be in the hand, since he plays 28% of his hands, according to the assumptions above, so the perfect conditions for "revenge" would happen roughly once every 800 hands.
You had JJ, this was the right time to draw a line in the sand and you took a bad beat. However, the pot odds weren't good enough. You shouldn't have committed to the shove unless you were getting the right odds.
This could have been accomplished with a re-raise, to $120 or similar: If the villain calls, the pot now contains $154:
You win the pot 70%: $154 x 70 = $10,780 (you shove and villain folds his bluff)
You lose the pot 30%: $225 x 30 = $6,750 (you shove and villain has the goods)
Net EV: +$4,030 (+18%)
At that point, if you still think it's a bluff, at least you have the right pot odds to shove.
However, if it was a bluff, a re-raise is almost as effective as an all-in, and he'd probably give up right there: when you re-raise that overbet, his remaining stack is only enough for a 2/3 bet on the flop and nothing on later streets: There is almost no fold equity left. Either he has the goods and he will shove/trap, or he doesn't and he will fold.
Also, even if he shoves and you fold, this reraise will make him think twice about trying to steal your raises in the future. You still have the bigger stack, and chances are he won't have the goods next time, so now he has to either slow down and wait for premium hands, or take chances knowing that there is another aggressive player at the table.
Bottom line, I think you had 3 good options:
- Fold and leave the table.
You were up 230% on that session. If you can't play JJ into an overly loose player, you shouldn't be sitting on the same table as that guy. You had a great session, go do something else and maybe come back in an hour see if the guy's still around.
- Fold and wait for him to bust or slow down. Play more conservatively, only the hands he is not playing, and play only KK+ against him if you are lucky enough to get the opportunity.
- A strong re-raise followed by a fold. You'd still have lost cash on that specific hand, but at least you can console yourself with the fact that it was mathematically sound.
In fact, a re-raise followed by a shove, even if you lose that specific hand, will force him to reconsider bluffing you, so there could be some benefits to that play in the long run.
