NL100: Turn Two-Pair at Wet Board Facing Small Bets

Question

note: I don't have a great deal of experience with "Speed Poker" but I can see that the table dynamics are significantly different from regular 6max.

Villain is 20/17/10% 3bet. AF 3. Over 93 hands. Less positionally aware than average. I've seen him 3bet light with 96s but not from this positional situation. He's what I'd consider TAG-ish.

I'm a little stuck at the Turn as i'm unsure of what is best? I have similar feelings about the River although I think it's not quite as difficult given the pot odds.

Thanks.

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$1.00 NL ZOOM (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: 197.8 BB
BB: 40 BB
Hero (UTG): 115.3 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 40.5 BB
BTN: 57.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.50BB) Hero has A♠ Q⋄

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5BB, 2 players) Q♥ 2⋄ J♥
BB checks, Hero bets 4.4 BB, BB calls 4.4 BB

Turn: (14.3BB, 2 players) A♥
BB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

River: (24.3BB, 2 players) K♠
BB bets 9 BB, Hero ???

Answer 1

93 hands is certainly a small sample, especially for 3betting statistics. At most he's probably had ~10 opportunities to 3bet. For VPIP/PFR its reasonable, but as you probably know its very easy to go 50+ hands without being able to open/flat/3bet/whatever.

The fact that villain is sitting with 40bbs is a pretty big indicator that he's a fish (or, at the least, that he's not a winning regular). The line he takes in this hand makes me even more confident in this analysis.

When people take this sort of turn line it generally means that their hand improved in some way that allows them to think they're ahead. Basically, they don't want you to check back but they also don't want to scare you away.

I definitely call the turn because sometimes we're ahead, and when we aren't and draw out we stack him.

On the river I don't think there's a big difference between folding and calling. We need to be good 27% of the time so I think it's pretty close. He doesn't seem like a maniac so I think it's a fold but in game I probably call a decent portion of the time, lol.

Answer 2

You can definitely narrow the range down to drawing hands. When he donk bets the turn its a pretty solid indicator of strength. Hearts are definitely in his range so he could have made the flush. I possibly would have 3 bet him after he leads out at me to see how he responded. But calling the turn and his small river bet profits being able to see what he's holding for really thin value to get more information.

Answer 3

Consider raising the turn and folding to a shove. If he has a worse two pair he is calling the raise, if he has a flush, he is probably shoving. So you get away cheap and maximize your value.

As played, easy value bet and fold to shove.

Edit: Sorry I didn't realize the K made a one card straight. No problem checking back the river in that case, I'd still probably make a smallish value bet though.

Answer 4

Call the turn is OK. If you raise and get 3 bet you might have to release. You have 4 outs to a boat and you can stack a flush. Odd to lead out like that. Max value would be to let you bet as you are not likely to shut down. Since it is an ace less chance he has hearts. He could be on suited connectors here but top they could be 9T which is a loose call pre in my mind.

You are getting 3.6 : 1 with two pair on the river.

He could be doing this with AJ. He could also have a lot of hands that have you beat. Not likely a bluff.

I would call the river for $9 but not loving it.