Nut flush draw shove

Question

I tried finding an answer on a few sites first, but couldn't.

Just wondering about nut flush draws on the flop. Hopefully I give enough info here, but I am just wondering if the following is the correct play.

I have A♥ 6♥.

It's an aggressive enough game. I call a 3bb raise pre flop. (I realise this is where I went wrong in the first place, but I am more interested in my flop play). Of those in the pot on the flop, I'm first to act after the blinds.

4 players see the flop. Pot is 12 BB. Flop comes Q♥ 7♥ 2♠.

Big blind checks, I check, 3rd to act bets the pot. 4th calls. Big blind folds.

The pot is now 36BB. I've about 40BB left, and I shove.

I put the opponents on QQ+ KQ AQ

My question though, even if I know I am not the favourite to win the pot, is shoving for 40bb into a pot of 36bb profitable in the long run.

I've a 35% chance of winning the pot (I don't think either opponent will fold to my bet). So how I look at it, if I contribute less than 35% of the pot, with a bet, it's profitable in the long run, as I will win 35% of the time (Barring the board pairing).

So betting 40bb into a pot of 36bb, and there being two callers means there is a final pot of 156. My bet was 40bb, and the pot was 36bb, and I was confident both players would call.

So how I saw it was, my 40bb bet, would be for about 25% of the pot at the end of that street, and I would end up winning the hand 30-35% of the time. (30-35 as I think the board might pair and I'll lose about 5% of the time I hit my flush)

I usually see people call an all in in this situation, as obviously the pot odds are better, but I was just wondering. This kind of shove is something I do quite a bit online, even though I know, I am usually not a favourite going in, but because of the odds, I believe it is the correct play in the long run.

So getting some info on this, would be helpful, and if this is a poor play, it is something I will have to stop doing, as it's something I can easily stop myself doing (I only started doing it because I thought it makes money long term).

Answer 1

On a strict mathematical basis, no, this is not a good play. You are getting 1-1 odds on your money when you need more like 2-1 just to break even.

However, you can introduce fold equity into this line of thinking. Fold equity in a nutshell: if you can get opponents to fold, then your hand/odds/draw don't matter nearly as much.

So the part that I would change is the check on the flop. I would absolutely shove on that hand. First, that board is going to miss quite a bit of people's ranges. You could also push something like a weak Q off that hand with a shove. Second, the initial, early shove shows a lot more strength than a check-shove, which can be an akward play in this spot. The goal is to put your opponents into question for all their checks; if you let them put some money in already (like after your check) then they feel "priced in" and your fold equity is a little lower than what it could otherwise be.

Worst case scenario, they call you and you're very much alive in the hand - there's basically nothing that has you dead to rights on that board. Best case scenario, you take down a good pot right on the flop.

Answer 2

I think you overplayed your suited ace.

Preflop

Calling with A♥6♥ pre-flop a typical raise isn't so bad of a move if you plan to play it mostly for the flush potential and against a loose crowd, as this going to increase your implied odds sky high and this should be the #1 reason to enter cheaply. The great possibility of multi-way pot should be your prime reason to play this hand. So it's ok to enter and take that risk.

Flop

Ok, you hit your nuts flush draw so you're in good shape, especially because the pot is multi-way and there bigger % someone has a hand to fell in love with. Someone bets the pot in this situation which is OK nothing to fear / panic about. There was 12 BB, someone make it 24 BB and another makes it 36 BB. It cost you 12 BB to win a pot of 48 BB so the pot gives you 25% equity. Your flush % to the showdown is about 35% so you have the equity to shove. But the problem is that you don't have fold equity here. Loose aggros are going to call you no matter what and most of the time you're going to get beaten. Personally the only hands i play that way are when i have combo-draws, like:

having K♥Q♥

on J♥T♥4♠

Your hand is a coin-flip against 2 opponents, since you're praying for that little ♥. However with a combo-draw you get increased around 70%. Personally i don't like to get all-in against loose opponents as i want some fold equity. Effectively, you just got all-in with 50% equity against aggros.

Personally, i would just call the bet on the flop after a pot-raised bet and the call. If there was not a call and knew that player is going to barrel again on turn i would fold as well. In short, i like to continue beyond the flop vs loose-passive opponents, not with maniacs. Don't try to win every hand. Call the bet and fold any barrel on the turn that goes beyond the odds; call min-raises or keep checking. You have a draw and don't play against tight players, just get in as cheap as possible.