I tried finding an answer on a few sites first, but couldn't.
Just wondering about nut flush draws on the flop. Hopefully I give enough info here, but I am just wondering if the following is the correct play.
I have A♥ 6♥.
It's an aggressive enough game.
I call a
3bb raise pre flop. (I realise this is where I went wrong in the first place, but I am more interested in my flop play).
Of those in the pot on the flop, I'm first to act after the blinds.
4 players see the flop. Pot is 12 BB. Flop comes Q♥ 7♥ 2♠.
Big blind checks, I check, 3rd to act bets the pot. 4th calls. Big blind folds.
The pot is now 36BB. I've about 40BB left, and I shove.
I put the opponents on
QQ+ KQ AQ
My question though, even if I know I am not the favourite to win the pot, is shoving for 40bb into a pot of 36bb profitable in the long run.
I've a 35% chance of winning the pot (I don't think either opponent will fold to my bet). So how I look at it, if I contribute less than 35% of the pot, with a bet, it's profitable in the long run, as I will win 35% of the time (Barring the board pairing).
So betting 40bb into a pot of 36bb, and there being two callers means there is a final pot of 156. My bet was 40bb, and the pot was 36bb, and I was confident both players would call.
So how I saw it was, my 40bb bet, would be for about 25% of the pot at the end of that street, and I would end up winning the hand 30-35% of the time. (30-35 as I think the board might pair and I'll lose about 5% of the time I hit my flush)
I usually see people call an all in in this situation, as obviously the pot odds are better, but I was just wondering. This kind of shove is something I do quite a bit online, even though I know, I am usually not a favourite going in, but because of the odds, I believe it is the correct play in the long run.
So getting some info on this, would be helpful, and if this is a poor play, it is something I will have to stop doing, as it's something I can easily stop myself doing (I only started doing it because I thought it makes money long term).