# Tag Info

## Hot answers tagged probability

Accepted

### Hold'em: Why does K♠️7♠️ beat A♠️2♠️ more frequently than K♠️8♠️ does?

K7 steals one winner from A2 K7 wins 3456 and K8 does not K8 does not steal 4567 as A2 does not have a piece of it
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### Drawing Dead Preflop?

This is an interesting question. The key consideration to me is "Player A cannot win the pot via a split pot", meaning that there should be no scenario whereby the board contains the nuts. This is ...
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### Best hand versus AA

I exhaustively simulated (every possibility is run) AA vs any pocket pair and AA vs any suited connector. Firstly let's cover the pocket pairs: Obviously it is best for the under-pair to have ...
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### How do I calculate poker hand probabilities?

Welcome to the world of probabilities! 1. Questions, Answers, Frequencies Probabilities calculation is about a question requiring an answer. It is about a question involving: An initial state. This ...

### Poker Strategy for all ins

It depends on what kinds of hands your opponent would go all-in with. If it's a tournament and he's short stacked in late position, he might have many types of hands. If it's a cash game or early in ...
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### hand distribution in 6 max vs full ring

Probability is a measure of information. It's not about where the cards are--it's about what you know about them. Let's say you have a flush draw on the turn--9 outs. What odds should you use for ...
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### Why don't you remove the element of luck in poker?

In general, if you remove luck from the game, it becomes much more difficult to win money. This is because the average poker player thinks they are better then average. Mathematically this cannot ...
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### Drawing Dead Preflop?

As I mentioned in a comment above, this was not my answer, found it here. Although I did find you could also substitute the 7s with 8s, and then the Queens with Jacks, 10s or 9s. Suits matter in the ...
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### Pocket pair starting hands vs. probability of opponent having a pocket pair

A poker math geek gave me the following formula to use as an estimation. (Edit: The credit for this shortcut goes to Phil Gordon and is known as the Gordon Pair Principle.) Let's say you have 55: ...
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### What's wrong with my equity calculation?

At first, I thought, OK, lets quickly answer this, returning the favor. But it turned out to be a rather tricky one! One online calculator gives 48.18%, the other 48.28%, off by 0.1%, already very ...

### Why isn't every value player rich?

Rich? It's extremely hard to be "rich" just by playing poker, but it's simple enough to make a living off it. The reason being that you have to be vastly superior to the field to make steady money off ...
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### Distinct 7 card poker hands

The hands that can't happen with seven cards are exactly the five card hands that improve no matter which two cards are added to them. This basically means hands with low kickers. A high card hand (...
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### Which poker hand is this?

Each players' hand is comprised of their best 5 card hand... Ruane has Two Pair: Queens and Tens with a King kicker Hallaert has Two Pair: Queens and Tens with a 6 Kicker Ruane wins with the higher ...

### Probability of ace on flop?

Assuming heads-up. Since you hold AQ and villain has AJ, there are 52-4=48 cards left on the deck, with 2 Aces remaining. So, Prob[at least an Ace on the Flop] = 1-Prob[no Ace on Flop]=1-(46/48)(45/...

### You have AA in the BB. The BU opens to 3.5x. What is your line?

The standard line would be to re-raise to what ever your defend re-raise is. Depending on how often the BU raises you should be defending with a re-raise a decent range. If you defend with 88+ and ...
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### Poker hand suited connector

I think that calling here would be the worst play and I agree with your reasoning. Additionally, one of your outs (9 of diamonds) either helps another player out even more or else kills your ...
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### Chances of an opponent not having a flush on 3-flush board

This is quite difficult to answer without making some assumptions. You could just calculate the chances of your opponent having a hand with a maximum of one heart based on the known and unknown cards, ...
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### Outs when needing more than one card

To elaborate on Paparazzi's answer, you can calculate the odds of a card being dealt next by dividing the number of cards you wish to know the chance of coming by all remaining unknown cards (...
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### Quads sevens 5 times in one night

I will have to get technical, sorry. There are 35 possible ways to make quad sevens. They are all equally likely. You can get this number by writing out all possibilities like this: XXXXOOO XXXOXOO ...
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### How to calculate probability of flopping a set (with pocket pairs)?

total combinations = 19,600 assuming you have red 2s flops with 2s but no 2c [2s, 48, 47] = 48c2 = 1128 flops with 2c but no 2s [2c, 48, 47] = 48c2 = 1128 flops with 22x [2c, 2s, 48] = 48 2256/...

### Draw poker should you keep AK

Going to try the math. If you keep the AK you have more ways to pair but you also have less chances to pair the A. You don't need the K kicker as you have the A and it rarely goes to a second ...
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### Chance of winning heads-up by always shoving pre-flop

Assuming good depth (50bb+) if someone calls with the top 50% of hand i.e. everything that is +ev to call, he would have 57% chance to win However a good player realizing he has 57% chance to win and ...
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### Probability of two royal flushes' played in a row

You can look up how to work out the odds in detail for a royal flush, I'll just give you a really quick breakdown, but they basically work out as 1 : 649,739 or 0.000154%. Four suits, but only one ...
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### Does AA have the highest Equity in "double-board-bomb-pot" with 9 players?

Given the following: we know AA is the best starting hand in regular 9-handed NLHE there is no action before the flop in double board bomb pots we are considering the strength of the hand before we ...
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### Safe strategy? In a simplified model of poker

In my interpretation, I think you could change the word "safe" with unexploitable. If that's the case then you are talking about using Game Theory to find strategies that can't be beaten by your ...
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### Starting hands probability

Remember, don't get confused with the method used in applying combinatorics in the overall game of poker. What is being worked out here is the probability of starting hands being dealt to you, nothing ...
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### Joint, conditional, and value-dependent probabilities (in... poker)

Recall the first article when I talked about a question, a world and initial conditions, and so? Well, most of the times the questions you ask are complex in nature. This means, if I played a ...

### What are the odds of flopping a straight flush with 62s?

Out of possible 19,600 flops, which is C(50,3), you can only have 1 to flop the Straight Flush, that is 3,4,5 of your holecards' suit. Thus the probability of flopping SF with 62s is 1/19600.
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### Odds that someone makes or holds a pair on the flop, based on the # of players

If we assume that any player seeing the flop is equally likely to have any possible hand and that we do not take our own specific hand into account, we can provide an answer. Taking the simple case ...
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